Only the republicans could kill a raging bull:)
They vote time and again to replace Obamacare while Obama is President knowing that it will look great for them politically but have no chance of them having any responsibility for the repercussions of the repeal as it was a 100% Veto by Obama.
But, what they did not realize is that strategy is great as long as they have the plan and the will to vote out Obamacare when they get all three branches.
Now, to their defense, they most likely believed the polls that said Clinton had a 95 % chance of winning, right up to election day.
So you could call it a stroke of bad luck for them when Trump won the Presidency. As now it was put up or shut up. And amazingly to me, they could not get their act together on something they have been voting to repeal for the last 6 years.
Certainly you cannot blame Trump for this. The 3 stage implimentation was not a bad idea, especially since it was more than likely the Republicans would get to the 60 vote threshold in the Senate in 2018.
They could of handled it much better, and that falls on Ryan and Scalise. They are the two that make things happen in the House. It was handled so poorly that now people are questioning Ryan’s true motivation.
Myself, he is either incompetent or a sabateur:) What else could it be?
So taking victory into defeat as the Republican’s so often do the 60 vote threshold in the Senate is in Jeopardy now in 2018. If they do not watch out, more than that might be in Jeopardy. We may be seeing President Oprah:)
Now you might ask how does this relate to the markets? The passage of the new bill would of put the governement on their way to reduce some very burdomsome costs on America. It would have been a tailwind for the markets.
The bill had its problems but that is why it was staged in 3 parts. In addition, what makes this even more problematic, the house would have gotten another shot at it when the Senate amended it and sent it back!
By the bill not even getting out of the house when the President put 100% of his weight behind the bill does not bode well for tax reform, immigration reform, the wall , infrastructure spending etc.
However, this can all change overnight if they get a good tax bill out of the house the next 30 days. The problem is that the genius Ryan who rolled out the health care bill in secret insulting every conservative in the house has stated it is going to make the tax cuts very difficult to pass now. A nice positive attitude out of someone who is supposed to be a cheerleader for the President’s agenda.
This is a guy that had no problem doubling the Debt the last 8 years.
So the market sees this an issue that perhaps the Trump rally was premature. Perhaps Congress still is not going to get anything done. The difference here is while they could blame it on Obama the last 8 years, they have no one to blame it on but themselves.
If the Republican’s do not get their act together soon, this market is headed to the woodshed and fast.
As an aside, what in the world is Yellen doing raising rates??? I will leave that for another day:)
The markets are going to gap down about 3/4% this morning. I am long about 7 positions. One is a country spread, Long france short Germany, I am also long in gold per a system play that triggered late last week, but then the other trades are going to take a hit this morning.
I most likely will be looking to put on the 2nd quarter of my mean reversion trade in SPY. Depending on how the breath looks will make my decision as to putting the trade on early or late. If it looks like a trend day down today I will wait until before the close.
The final thought is if you are long this market, panic is not an option. If you are experiencing any kind of fear right now than you are sizing your trades much too high. Fear is a response that is best left for when you get a gun held at you (even then its not a good emotion to have) rather than trading the markets!
Fear typically comes along when you need logical thought the most. It is like Variance, you need to eliminate it as best you can from your repetoir.
I remember when training to be an instrument rated pilot the lesson on how to get out of a full spin in the event your one of the few that accomplishes that while flying. I wont bore you with the technicques to use, but the lesson is ” Getting out of a full spin is one of the most difficult things there is as a pilot in a small plane, but considering the alternative you had best do whatever you can”
And that is the way in the markets. Keep a clear head and you will be fine as long as you are position sizing appropriately.
I went longer than I intended to this Monday morning but I know that fear is in the air right now. I can sense it:)
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
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