You can tell it’s September. As soon as Sept 1 came along the entire context of the market action changed dramatically. It is interesting that historical patterns play themselves out quite often. I do not analyze this as I handicap sports events but I imagine money flows change based upon logical reasons depending on the time of the year. These variables seem if properly studied would be much more reliable than many of the historical patterns found in sports, primarily because books tend to adjust.
I had some nice trades yesterday and sold most at the bell for a nice profit. I did keep two positions which I am sure will be taking a hit on the open. But you never know as the trades I make are very well screened to outperform the market over the long run.
One pattern the market has going today is it options expiration day. Typically the smart money play is to short the market on the open and then exit at either 11 or 12 PST. With this large gap down however, one might try to short the bounce rather than right at the open. The trade is only a 3 or 4-hour trade but tends to work out well.
I will not be making any BO trades until 11 PST but when 11 hits I will be looking for either BO trades or Mean Reversion trades depending on market conditions.
Again nothing new on the geopolitical front. Been quiet for some time now. The only newsworthy potential market moving event is the presidential election right now. The polls have Trump getting much closer to Clinton. I had said a few months ago when the line was 3-1 that Trump was an overlay. But you had to take some heat as the line went up to 4-1. Now it’s back to 3-2 in favor of Clinton.
How this will affect the markets is anyone’s guess. But one thing is certain if you are trying to find out do not listen to pundits that are biased either way. As you will learn nothing. I noticed Cuban was on TV the other day saying the markets would tank if Trump got elected.
Now maybe they will but Cuban is a big Clinton supporter so you have to take whatever supporters say on either side with the appropriate weight. Which to me is 0!!!
It’s anyone’s guess how this will affect the markets. You could make a reasonable argument both ways.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
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