I have settled down a bit now so wanted to share an exchange I think is very educational that I had with a subscriber yesterday:
“Hi Rick – Thanks for the plays so far. Enjoying the insight. Question for you: Do you track closing line value (where you release a play at and where it officially closes)? I’ve heard that is the only way to calculate if one has an edge over the market, but not sure if it would work for you (or matter much) because you release so close to game time. I thought of this because I noticed that the Charlotte +8 went against us last night – which made me nervous as I think it closed a 1/2 point or a full point worse – and it turned out to be a worthy fear.
Which brings me to my next question: How come you never release overnight plays? I’ve had some success tailing some sharp releases of overnight stuff. Seems those lines may be exploitable, albeit at low limits.”
“To answer your question on closing line value. If the play was made in part because of a reverse line move then yes a move that would take it out of a reverse line move would negate the value of the play. If however the play is evaluated independently of the move from opening to close then a move against us really has no impact to me.
Just because the public decides to pound the game some more after my play is put out is really irrelevant.
I do not do overnight because more and more the value is in part interpreting the line based upon the movement in relationship to the betting. Certainly if you were in the extremely small % of handicappers that can actually handicap better than the books overnight might give some value. But as I mentioned before the number of those handicappers I have met over the years that were successful you can count on one hand! And even then they incorporate much of what I do.
Beating sports betting is about as difficult a proposition as sitting in a 2/4 limit hold em game where the rake is 5.00 a hand. Well maybe not that difficult but you get the drift of what I am saying. I have many good friends that are fairly good sized bookmakers. Without exception, virtually none of their customers make money betting sports.
That’s, why to run into a handicapper that can produce positive results year in and year out, is like finding a needle in a haystack. But even then you still have to overcome human nature. Humans almost without exception seem to find a way to lose. Most are just hardwired that way.
So I have probably given you more info than you asked for but I always enjoy the chance to give insights into someone that is interested in getting them.”
“Thanks Rick for the thoughtful response.
Regarding your response to you being indifferent if the public decides to pound a game some more after you release and the line moves against us:
1) How do you know it’s not actually sharp money instead of public money moving the line against us?
2) Wouldn’t you always want to get a number on par or better than the market? For example, if you believe Broncos +1 is a good bet when you make it, but it closes +3, isn’t that a cause for concern regardless of who causes the line move?
Finally, just as a follow-up to the closing line value question: I’m not much of a handicapper like you are, but I do look for quality off-market plays. Say if I can get an NBA team at +7 when the market deals +6, that’s a winning long-term strategy correct? Do you think it’s worth looking for lines my books offer and then comparing them to Pinny to find value? Haven’t started doing that yet but it seems to make sense.”
“1. Sometimes it’s not easy to separate the sharp money from the public. But there are some clues that give you a pretty good idea. The general idea is the greater the betting on one side of the game the more the move with the betting tends to be public. So 80% on one side and line move with the betting it likely public. If 55%, that same move might be sharp. So it’s not cut and dry. Some judgement is involved.
2. Of course! But oftentimes it becomes hindsight. It’s not that easy to determine where the market is going to move to. This is clear in the NFL where several years ago you could wait until game time to get the best line if you were on the dog. But now that does not work. You have to time it.
3. I almost always feel that the most accurate prediction of value is the opening line. There was a study done awhile back that showed the opening line beat 95% of the power ratings. That’s quite a number but i would assume that is very close to the truth.
4. As far as slow lines. Certainly if you can get a slow line where key numbers are involved I would factor that in. But that alone would not sway me into making a wager on the game. The problem is the vig. Since you have to overcome 5% just to break even you really have to have a more than that.
Finally, you have uncovered a profitable technique when you compare books. There are some books that when the line is different than the others it means something. Surprisingly pinnacle tends not to be the one. Also, it depends on whether you’re betting sides and totals along with what sport.
Just to give you an idea if your looking at college hoop totals bet us tends to be a very sharp line. But those type of methods can change in an instant.”
“Thanks for the info Rick. Sounds like if I can get a slow line that also combines some handicapping elements, I might have a good play.
One last follow-up question: You make it sound like the opening line is more accurate than the closing line, but how can this be? I’ve read that lines are opened at lower limits by a handful of books because they want to see how the public and sharps bet into it.”
“I do not think that is true. But I agree that there are many books that wait until the line is settled down as they are looking at getting action on both sides. In addition, they do not want to take the heat that the opening line might give them. Especially one that look like a sure thing!
If you doubt what I am saying take a look at thepredictiontracker.com
It evaluates the opening line compared to other power ratings. Its an eye opener and also gives you some perspective about power ratings in general.
How I interpret prediction tracker is that in some sports there is a very strong indication that the opening line is the best line. For the others, it’s a tossup.”
If this prompts any questions please do not hesitate to send me an email. But I feel this was a good discussion that has some very good ideas.
Thursday we went 0-2 -1 on our plays. 0-1-1 in college hoops and 0-1 in the NHL. You know things are not going well when you have N. Texas +11 and you get a push in OT!
I have looked over the games tonight and actually the games look a bit better tonight then they did last night with a full slate of game. Now that is 45 min before tip off .
I am going to cut this short tonight as I have had some family issues I have had to deal with all day. But as always Plays and setups will be out in their normal fashion.
If anyone has any questions please lets communicate via email. Also Ihave the backup sms all ready to go so if their is anyone else that wants to get on the backup list just send me an email.
Good Luck Tonight
Even I have to say this rally has been most impressive. The market is completely ignoring the Fed for now while most of the shorts are getting hammered mercilessly. The pendulum swings back the other way!
We are now for the first time in a long time above the 50 day MA. But we are still not out of the woods. 1. the Nasdaq unless something very strange happens today is not going to close the week leading the SP500. That is the first all clear sign I look at. 2. Now we have to see if the break is a bull trap and that will take a few days to see 3. Even if you are convinced this is for real waiting for a pullback would be the way to go 4. We are squarely in mean reversion territory now and I am going to start positioning for it.
1. the Nasdaq unless something very strange happens today is not going to close the week leading the SP500. That is the first all clear sign I look at. 2. Now we have to see if the break is a bull trap and that will take a few days to see 3. Even if you are convinced this is for real waiting for a pullback would be the way to go 4. We are squarely in mean reversion territory now and I am going to start positioning for it.
2. Now we have to see if the break is a bull trap and that will take a few days to see 3. Even if you are convinced this is for real waiting for a pullback would be the way to go 4. We are squarely in mean reversion territory now and I am going to start positioning for it.
3. Even if you are convinced this is for real waiting for a pullback would be the way to go 4. We are squarely in mean reversion territory now and I am going to start positioning for it.
4. We are squarely in mean reversion territory now and I am going to start positioning for it.
5. Finally, the market still has the 200 day MA to breach
My best guess is we are very close to the top of this move. The market is gapping up almost 1 % this morning. So going long on this open on breakouts or anything else for that matter is out of the question for me. My only decision this morning is going to be when to start my mean reversion trade short. I typically scale into these 1/4 at a time. And typically I wait until before the close to place my short as I do not want to be on the wrong side of a trend day by shorting on the open.
So it is going to be a matter of judgement today as to when to place my short. Something I typically do not like to rely on:) We will see!
Good Luck Today
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