You can tell the polls are tightening in the presidential race as the market is acting very nervous here. A week ago it was a forgone conclusion that Clinton would be our next President and the markets were comfortable with that it seemed. But from the day the FBI announced they were reopening their investigation into the Clinton emails along with 5 divisions now actively investigating the Clinton foundation the smart money now is a Trump win in six days.
The markets have reacted to that violently as no one knows exactly what to expect with a Trump administration. In addition the talks of civil war by Clinton most likely are causing some uncertainty also.
I dont know about you but I will be glad when this election is put to rest. It has brought out the very worst of the concept of Democracy. The negativity displayed is at a level never seen before. I for one am very disappointed in the polarization of the country. I keep asking myself..are we not all Americans?
Enough of my venting and I am not expressing any opinion whatsoever as to which candidate I prefer. As I have said in the past I am an Independent that is issue driven. I agree with many liberal issues but also agree with some conservative ones. So its a balancing of everything for me as nothing is ever straight forward.
As I told a relative of mine. This decision on Nov 8th is very similar to trying to figure out in your head a 3 suit squeeze in bridge. You sit at the table, go over the bidding, play out the probabilities of various distributions, make your assumptions, and then a light goes on and your there.
I expect the uncertainty and volatility to exist until the election is settled. Chances are it will not be settled on Nov 9th. I doubt either party is going to concede quietly without exhausting every legal remedy available. So it is not inconceivable to me that we may even get more turmoil on Nov 9th.
Protect your investments. I would not be a bad idea to shut down all trading until things settle down. Myself I feel that uncertainty creates opportunity. But the risks now are a bit higher then normal.
Today the markets are down slightly an hour before the open. I have on 1/2 a mean reversion trade in the indexes. Along with a stock mean reversion trade. It appears I will be taking some heat on these.But that’s the nature of mean reversion.
Breakout trades have not been working well because of the volatility. So I do not expect to make many between now and election day unless we get a trend day to the upside.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks