We are 30 min before the open with SPY, QQQ, DIA, and IWM all gaping up slightly. IWM is leading the way this morning.
Of note, Metals are down, financials are up, with the rest about unchanged.
One message that looks very clear to me is that the market is weakening here.
I do not see how yesterday’s testimony by Comey could not have been better for the White House.
In market speak that means Trump’s agenda is back on track(not so clear, however). But the market shrugged it off. And this morning seems to be shrugging it off.
I would have expected a bigger reaction to Comey’s testimony.
Before I get into this I have to comment on the “bi-partisan” Senate intelligence committee. If anyone buys that idea this is anything but a severely biased polarized group I have a bridge to sell you:)
I could not believe what I saw when Warner gave an opening statement! A statement that would be one you would expect from a prosecutor in a criminal trial. Since when does a fact-finding committee in Congress give an opening statement of that nature before a witness testifies?
I cannot imagine that they will continue to try to sell that this committee is anything but a partisan group selling their political agenda. Neither side has an interest in the truth but only what they feel they can sell to further their party’s hold on power.
But even then Warner’s opening statement was over the top by any standard.
It is almost comical to watch Burr commend his committee on its being so fair and bipartisan and then almost without exception after he speaks you get the most partisan comments you will ever here in a committee:)
I am not picking on the Democrats here as the Republicans are certainly capable and have done the same thing in the past.
Now back to what I was talking about:)
One of the best indicators that the market will tell you is in how it reacts to both positive and negative news.
That has been and most likely always will be a significant clue in determining short-term market direction.
They say in bull markets all news is good news and vice versa. There is a lot of truth to that statement at least in market reaction.
So yesterday we get extremely positive news for the White House (even some liberal pundits are throwing in the towel after yesterday) and the market rallies but not what one would expect.
That to me signals either a short-term pause or a pullback soon.
Of course, there are other market moving events floating around. The repeal of Dodd Franke is one along with the longshot of Congress actually passing any legislation that pushes Trump’s agenda forward.
And then there is the FED. I will save that for another day.
I most likely have been overly cautious the last few weeks but I did snag a quick $1500 on two <24-hour trades.
My basket of stocks for these types of trades is sparse right now. I am watching several reversal trades but the parameters for entry are very restrictive.
My system trades have also been absent for awhile.
So it is a quiet period for me which enables me to work on fine tuning both investment strategy and sports betting.
The next political wager coming up is the Ossoff Handel race in Georgia. This morning Ossoff (Democrat) is a 60/41 favorite.
The election is 11 days away and my thought is the value although small is on Handel. Real Clear Politics has it a 2.5 pt edge for Ossoff which is within the margin of error.
The biggest advantage I see is the polling bias that favors the Democrat candidates. We saw it in the Trump Clinton polling and my opinion is that it is prevalent in high profile elections.
This creates an opportunity for a sharp handicapper.
A caveat is that some would argue with my assessment of polling bias. So, beware, that this is my personal assessment rather than something I have gleaned from somewhere else.
It will be interesting to me how the race comes out. A lot of money is being spent on this race along with a substantial amount of spin as to what the race will mean for both parties.
Expect that spin to reverse on a dime however if their side loses:)
Enough of my rambling this morning.
If you want to follow some of my trades along with my thoughts typically given after the open you can go to @rickjswings. Typically I talk about the overall day expected with the markets and also give some levels on the ES and NQ for failed breakout scalping.
It’s my private twitter feed for the stock market and its free. Sports Handicapping is the subscription-based part of this site. But considering the cost of joining it’s almost free:)
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks