The stock market has stabilized but it still remains to be seen what surprises are ahead before the November elections. First, we had Russia, Russia, Russia which roiled the markets. Then we had each leak during the investigation that generated wild swings in the markets. Then after that had past and was not only debunked but criminal prosecutions are coming, we get the Ukraine inquiry.
This was as sinister as the Russia hoax as it involved not only Schiff meeting with the “Whistleblower” to set this entire sham up, but it was coordinated with Atkinson to allow hearsay information for the first time. So now we get more turmoil in the markets, with a full-blown impeachment probe in the House and impeachment.
Then onto the Senate, where all seemed an easy acquittal. But at the last second a leak from the NYT (which turned out to be false) involving a Bolton transcript. And the markets reacted violently. You even had Collins wanting to call Bolton, and Romney voting to convict. But when the smoke cleared Trump was acquitted.
So now the coast is clear it seems, and what is next…the Corona Virus. How convenient for the left. Something else to politicize. From the cause to the cure everything has been politicized. More 24/7 propaganda to work with and it has tanked the markets in the quickest drop in history.
But the Fed responded, Congress responded (except doubling the amount needed with the pork they added) and now the economy is primed to recover in record time once the smoke clears. The wind will be at the markets back in another 30 days. Trump will be pulling out all stops to get people back to work. And if anyone knows how to do it he does.
So, does that mean it’s now safe to get back into the markets? That the volatility is going to diminish? I do not think so. As if there is anything we have learned it is almost a certainty that something new is going to hit.
You have to understand that the left and also the establishment republicans cannot afford to have Trump in office another 4 years. The prosecutions are going to begin soon and their only hope is to get Trump out and bury all of this.
So, this is life or death for many of them. Rest assure the battle is far from over. Which means for the markets, the turmoil is far from over.
So what do you do as an investor? A lot of my friends have gone busted trading. Most approached as a gambler would. I warned them they need to adjust. But, they did not take heed. Myself, I have taken a hit with my base portfolio, but a small one. I have quit the medium term swing trades for now. And day trading is too time-intensive for me to take on.
But now that sports is on hold, my handicapping is on pause. So that has given me more time to research other avenues to produce income in the markets.
Low and behold, I have come up with a method to produce trades that so far has produced 90.8% winners with a profit factor of 8.29. To get that into perspective. If you can come up with a trading system with a profit factor of 2.5 you have something to work with. So far I have had 87 trades with a 79-8 record. I am on a 29-1 run on my last 30 trades:)
One of the good things about this aside from the win rate and profit factor is the drawdowns are next to nothing.
Now we only have 87 real-time samples. When we get up to 1000 the reliability will be much greater. But so far it is tradable and the risk is minimal.
I give all my trades to my subscribers who now are on pause. So they are free. I was sending them out on Viber but now I am using slack as it allows me to send out one message rather than individual messages to members.
If you want information about these trades just send me an email to [email protected] I will be happy to answer any questions.
If you want the trades go to the website and subscribe to the monthly option on PayPal. This has a 3-day free trial. But as soon as you sign up I will put your subscription on pause. My intention now is not to activate these until the sports service is back up. Which for now it will depend on when MLB begins.
Right now that is up in the air. They are throwing around ideas at this point with sometime in May or early June. I will keep you up to date as things firm up.
Now, let me comment on one other thing. I have touched upon it over the years but it bears repeating. My politics is neither Democrat or Republican. I am as independent a person as you will find. I am issue-based. I analyze politics the way I analyze the markets and handicap sporting events.
Unlike most, I am not handicapped by any dogmatic ideology. As an example right now I have as much disdain for establishment republicans as I do for many on the left. But for me, at this point in time, looking at the facts it is apparent that establishment republicans are the lesser of the two evils if you have to make a choice.
Now, that is the conclusion I have come to. I do not expect everyone to agree with me:) And I have to say most in my family and many of my relatives do not. So we do not talk about politics. But I have always been an independent thinker not swayed by the media. I have my investigative journalists I rely on for the facts. Each one is of the highest integrity, they are truth-tellers, and they are not ideologues.
I mention this because I have lost some long time subscribers because of my posts. Just as recently as last week I received an email from a long time subscriber essentially telling me to fuck off because I happen to think President Trump is fine for America.
When you have reached that point, its time to step back and reassess what is driving you. Irrational hate for a person only damages you, it stresses every part of your body. It is fine to disagree on policy but the media has driven much of the population into crazed lunacy. That is what you want to try to avoid. It is not easy. I know, I have been there:) But you owe it to yourself to figure it out. The only person you hurt is yourself.
I am not going to get into President Trump in this post but will save it for another day. But let’s move onto an update on the political odds:
Updated Political Odds:
Biden 82/18 No Change
Sanders Off the board
Clinton 5/95 +1 Pt
Cuomo 3/97 – 3 Pts
Looks about right. I still have some doubts Biden is going to be the nominee:) Make no mistake the Dems still can choose whoever they want.
Dem VP Nomination:
Harris 29/71 -3 Pts
Klobuchar 22/73 -3 Pts
Abrams 6/94 -3 Pt
Warren 13/87 No Change
Masto 8/92 +3 Pts
Whitmer: 8/92 -5 Pts
I have no opinion on who is going to get the VP nod. I think it is really up in the air at this point.
Trump 49/51 – 3 Pts I have a small amount of equity on my wager getting 45/55
Biden 45/55 +2 Pts
Getting back close to even money right now.
Control of the Presidency: Dems 50/50 No Change
Again I believe the value is in the Republicans
Control of the House:
78/22 Democrats: +4 Pts( I took 3 to 1)
I like the Republicans here. I rate it a tossup whether they regain the House.
Although the better wager is to bet against each of the “dirty 30”
Control of the Senate:
58/42 in favor of the Republicans -2 Pts
I actually think the Republicans could lose the Senate. Collins has self-destructed, although they will pick up Alabama. But in Georgia establishment, Republicans are making the same mistake they made in Alabama in 2018. Loeffler is damaged goods with insider trading. Collins, however, is a cinch if he gets the nomination. But the establishment is pulling out all stops to defeat him in the primary.
Add that to some of the policy-making decisions of the Republican Senate and they are not very popular. They only have a 3 person advantage in the Senate. So, I view the Senate race right now as a tossup, only because the establishment Republicans are making bad decisions.
Odds of a recession during Trump’s first term: 91/9 +3 Pts my wager taking 4 to 1 Right now it is all going to depend on the reporting numbers as its a very technical definition.
The best wager of the year will be fading the dirty 30 in the House. They are all incumbents, and all will most likely be +odds. So you only need to go 50% to make money. I cannot imagine not hitting 60%+ on these.
That’s it for today,
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks