2 games in the NFL today….Neither qualifies under my guidelines as a play.
The public is 62% on the road favorite. The line opened at -1-120 and is now -3.5 -110 on Pinnacle and on Cris -3 to -4-105. Of the variables I look at only 1 pts to San Fran…the rest all point to Atlanta. For me it would be either Atlanta or a pass.
The public is on the road dog 60%. This of course for those of you that have been following this blog should be a warning flag since the public is mostly on the favorites in the nfl.
The line has move from -7.5 to -8-102 on Pinnacle and -9 to -7.5-115 On Cris. This is why I like to look at both spots for a clear view of the action. If you just looked at Pinnacle you could draw the conclusion that there exists a home fav reverse line move but Cris negates that. The signals tend to be stronger when both agree.
Unlike the first game everything I look at points to New England. If the public was on baltimore 65% or more instead of 60% I would be betting New England. But its a pass…but for me it is either NE or a pass.
Some would argue I am too conservative in my approach… but it has suited me well over the years. I plan on staying in action and avoiding the manic depressive swings that many experience betting sports.
Saying that I embarrassingly admit I made a wager today on the games:) I couldn’t help myself for some reason this morning.
I bet a two team teaser laying -128 to 100 on Atlanta +10.5 with New England -2.5. Usually when I do this its a sure loser:) But we will see.
Nothing shows up yet in the NHL or the NBA. Also Clemson is down to +9 On Pinnacle. I will update if anything else develops.
Also as a reminder..I am available through my chat on the blog if you have any particular questions..regarding the games or anything. If I do not answer right away…I will when I return.
Good Luck today.
Not a lot of games today but we do have the NFL to liven things up today.
In college hoops Saturday we went 1-1 on our 1 unit sides. Both games were one sided. Our loss with Cleveland st had no chance and our win with citadel was an easy one as Citadel lead wire to wire and won the game outright.
Our 1/2 Unit totals went 1-2. These totals are smaller ev plays but have a reasonable chance of producing a profit at the end of the season.
In the Nhl we had 4 1/2 unit plays and went 2-2 for +.85 Units. There are going to be most likely quite a few NHl plays this season. I did a lot of work during the off season and I feel I have uncovered some positive ev in the NHL that can be exploited rather easily. We will see.
One thing though…this is a very short season in the NHL.
We have a carry over from last night with clemson +10 as a 1 unit play.
Its now 9.5 at most books.
Nothing else this morning in college hoops….I will have NFL comments along with any NBA and NHL later.
Good Luck Today