A comment

“rick could you please explain why your sunday 1 unit plays aren’t exactly the same as your Hilton plays? Like Tampa? How is that a play and not a Hilton play?”

The hilton picks are based upon in part my best guess at where the line and the public will be on Sunday. A lot changes between the time I put in the picks and game time. The tracking setups are based upon numbers the day of the game as are the one unit plays. The plays are where everything I look at agrees in a compelling way. The tracking setups are missing the public threshold to make them a play. And in some instances my models are also neutral on these. So they are far from a play.

Tampa was never a play. But you probably mean Cincinnati . When they moved to +3 I liked it as a play. I could not get 3 in the hilton contest.

Another comment

” In your two plus two article said that you use sportsinsites.com and paid $600. is there any difference between that subscription and the public info they offer for free on their website?”

I do not think sports insights gives anything away for free now. Then the 15 min delayed was free. Real time was extra. Now they charge for the 15 min delayed

Afternoon tracking setups

Jacksonville +19
Indianapolis +10

Sunday Nfl Plays
1 Unit
Cleveland +7 -123
Cinci +3 -124

I actually got -105 on cleveland and even on cinci…but these are the most widely available numbers at these prices. If you shave 1/2 off each you can get even or +slightly.

Tracking Setups ( I do not bet these)

Arizona +7.5
Tampa Bay +7.5

These tracking setups are games that except of my models show everything pointing to the game. My models are neutral on these games.

NFL For today

Public Numbers:
San Diego 67%
Minn 87%
New Eng 52%
Houston 65%
Dallas 50%
Arizona 39%
Det 54%
Green Bay 84%
Giants 86%
Atl 77%
San Fran 55%
Seattle 59%
Buff 65%
Chicago 76%
Denver 71%

Hilton Contest top 5 picks
Green Bay
St Louis

A comment:

“I made the comment about MIA last week. Would like to hear your thoughts about why not PIT this week.”

You were spot on for the Miami game last week! Looking at Pitt….24% of the public is on Pitt….that is good. Also other variables I look at point to pitt. However my models show the game to be fairly valued. So I felt there were better picks out there. But for me it would be pitt or a pass. And I am passing on the game….unless of course the line moves to 3!

Any plays in the nfl will be put out 30 to 60 min before game time.

Saturday we went 1-2 on our 1 unit plays in college football and 0-1 on our half unit play in MLB. We had our chances in the Central Mich game. Down by 14 they were driving late in the game but an interception ended it. Conn was an easy win and we never had a chance with E Mich.

Tracking setups went 2-1 in Ncaa fb and 0-1 in MLB.

Sunday MLB PLay
1/2 Unit
Milwaukee +137

Tracking setups ( I do not bet these)

Home Dog %
Milw +137
San Diego +116

Road Dog A
Seattle +107

NFL to follow.

Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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