11:30 Update
A Comment
“Hi Rick. What do your models say about Oakland tonight? thanks”
Washington has 61% of the public on them with the line opening at 3 and is now -3.5. However at Cris it opened at 4.5 and is now 3.5. As long as the public stays under 40 on Oakland its a reverse line move but only with Cris. For me it would be Oakland or nothing. If it were a reverse line move on Pinnacle and Cris…I would most likely bet the game.
9.55 Update
Sunday NFL Play
1 Unit
Buffalo +3.5
9:40
Sunday NFL Tracking Setups ( I do not bet these)
Buffalo +3.5 -115
Jacksonville -8.5
8:30 Update
Sunday NFL Play
1 Unit
Cleveland +3.5
Jacksonville is an interesting setup. they have the lowest public number on them. Indy is on the top 5 picks in the hilton contest. This alone should give them a very serious look. The only reason I do not pull the trigger on them is my models say the line should be around 9. Everything else points to jacksonville .
Also on Buffalo I am looking for a 3.5 on the game. Pinn is 3-113 so may get there by game time. I still might not bet it…will depend on the public numbers at the time.
8:15 Update
Public numbers for today
Pitt 57%
Balt 78%
cinci 77%
INdi 82%
seattle 68%
ariz 58%
chic 58%
kc 62%
tenn 51%
Dallas 59%
Wash 60%
denver 71%
atlanta 67%
new orl 74%
Top Picked teams in the Hilton Contest
Atl
NO
Hou
Pit
Indy
For your information the spread record of the top 5 picks is 2-12-1!
All of the above number should be looked at as a contrarian. Either to lead you to the other side or stay away from the side they are on.
If you use that guideline as a filter in your handicapping your results will improve dramatically.
Saturday there turned out to be no plays. Although Hawaii was very close but I decided not to bet it.
Tracking setups went 3-1. Road dog A in MLB was 1-0 and College football went 2-1
Today no plays again in baseball
Tracking setups ( I do not bet these)
Road Dog A
San diego +104
My Picks in the Hilton contest in the order I liked them at the time:
Cleveland +4.5
Buffalo +3
Jets +3.5
San diego +2
St Louis +3 LOST
I will post more on the NFL a bit later and there should be a play or two.
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
