Sunday MLB Play
957 -C Buchholz
958 STL-L Lynn +102
Doubt if 7.5 is going to be widely available for minn tonight. So most likely a complete pass.
Cinci -5.5 looks fairly valued with nothing pointing to either side of the game forme
Oakland +2.5 has a reverse line move going for it. My models show the game to be fairly valued
Washington +11 has everything going for the game except my models show denver to be quite a bit undervalued.
Arizona -2.5 looks to be fairly valued. I have nothing that points to either side except the public being strongly on the road dog at 67%
Minn tonight is now down to 7. There is a reverse line move on Minn and my models show Minn to be the right side. At 7 though green bay is just slightly over valued. If I can get +7.5 I will put the game out as a lean.
The only game left is monday night and if the numbers stay the way they are it will be a play…but thats a big if!
Jacksonville +15 My models show the game to be fairly valued. Almost all my variables I look at point strongly to Jacksonville. But….Jacksonville is on my do not consider list this years under any circumstances!
Detroit looks over valued but a top handicapper likes detroit at -3. public is split even on the game and few variables point to either side. Dallas is the top pick in the Hilton contest
Phil -5.5 my models show philly to be undervalued in addition only 40% on the home fav. But some strong variables point to the giants today.
KC down to 7 with 70% on them…a clear reverse line move. All of my variables point strongly to Cleveland today..but my models show KC to be way undervalued
New england down to -6.5 . A reverse line move with 26% on Miami. Everything I look at points to miami with the exception of my models that show NE slightly undervalued
New Orleans is now down to -10 . A reverse line move. Also my models show New ORleans to be overvalued by quite a bit. There is only 1 variable that points to NO today but its one of the strongest I look at. Otherwise I would be all over Buffalo today.
So a mish mash in the early games with no plays, tracking setups or leans.
I tend to follow contrarian handicapping angles, so fading the top 5-6 consensus picks each week makes a lot of sense. However I was wondering going forward, do you think it’s wise to continue fading or will there probably be a regression to the mean?”
Well…I can say with confidence that fading the top 5 is not a 76.5% system! But Just because you have a great run with a positive ev system does not necessarily mean you have to be any more concerned about a opposite run then you usually should be. Each game is independent of the other with the caveat that books do adjust so you might see a diminishment in returns based upon contrarian strategy as the books adjust to larger “sharp Bettors”
The best approach to the swings is to just use an appropriate money management system ie 2.5 percent of your bankroll set aside for sports betting and stick to it.
Saturday we won our 1 unit play on Minn +9.5 in an easy win. Except for falling behind 10-0 early Minn dominated the game and beat Nebraska by 11.
Our leans went 1-1 with Kent st never having a chance but colorado st an easy cover.
Today in MLB I would need st louis again to be a dog before I would consider betting the game. And that is not likely. Right now on Pinnacle they are -106. I would not take boston today even if they were a dog.
Again in the NHL most likely nothing. Until I get a good grasp on the rule change and its effect on my models I am only going to cherry pick the very best setups. And there will not be many.
And of course the NBA starts tomorrow. All I can say is be careful. Very tough sport to beat. I am going to stick with what I did last season…had a very solid season with not many plays. Only the best setups so not many plays there also this season..but hopefully a repeat of last season.
In the NFL today right now only one game I am looking at in the ball park for a play. I will update if it becomes clear.
Public sentiment today:
San Fran 73%
Kansas City 68%
New Orleans 78%
New England 71%
Green Bay 74%
Hilton Top 5 Picks
If all you did was fade these you would be rolling in money. 8-26-1 so far with another 1-4 week last week. I am on the other side of Sea and NO….but its not good to see Minn in the top 5…a bad sign for that game..and it was my top pick at the time:(
For those of you new to this blog the above numbers should be viewed as a contrarian. For the most part your handicapping should lead you to the opposite side of some of the biggest numbers..if it brings you consistently to the same side it might be time to consider some adjustments
Good Luck Today