Sunday NFL Tracking setup
I was asked about Oakland and also San Diego. My models show the giants to be overvalued a bit at 7. However there are 2 very high percentage variables that point to the giants today…I would stay away from that game.
San Diego is the closest to a play today then any of the games. Everything points to San diego with the exception of a high percentage variable that points to Denver. I am going to keep an open mind on the game but will most likely pass.
In college baskets nothing shows up today as a play. An interesting game. NC Wilminton only has 23% of the public on them but the line has moved from -20 to -18. My models show the game to be fairly valued….so I am passing. Lets keep an eye on the first half line +10.5 and see how that performs compared to the game line.
Looking at the early games:
Jacksonville +11.5. This game has more variables on it then I have ever had pointing to jacksonville. If I had not ruled out Jacksonville for the season it would clearing be a tracking setup…the only thing keeping it from a play is the models show Tenn to be slightly undervalued at 11.5. But I have put jacksonville as a no consideration team for the rest of the season. Lets see how it plays out.
St louis is now down to +7.5. Everything I look at pointed to St Louis. Its one of my picks in the HIlton contest and at +10 It would be Tracking setup. However at +7.5….you will not get rich fading big moves off the opening line in the NFL. Ideally 1/2 point moves are the best for reverse line moves.
Atlanta is down to +3.5. It was a pick in the Hilton contest at +6. Same reasoning applys to St louis above. Although Atlanta even looks better then st louis..
Chicago is now favored by 1. I got chicago +2.5 in the Hilton contest. Once they confirmed the quarterback situation the line immediately went to pick…interesting though that chicago has only 42% of the public on them…usually home favorites where you have less then 45% with a reverse line move then to be great plays….the only caveat…..chicago is in the top 5 in the Hilton…and thats a big big caveat!
Green Bay is similar to chicago without the reverse line move as 45% of the public is on green bay and they are -1. That would rule out phil for me no matter who is quarterback for green bay. They could pull someone out from the street who has never played before and I would not play phil under these circumstances! Remember for my analysis of these games to work you have to assume the line makers have a pretty good idea of what the line should be. Once you take this assumption as valid…which I can assure you it is…then handicapping becomes less difficult. Its never easy.
I was asked in a comment about Carolina and why I didnt put it in the hilton contest as 29% of the public is on carolina and there is clearly a reverse line move. I considered it. It was between St Louis, Carolina and Tampa Bay for my 5th pick. The problem with Carolina …the only problem….is there is a situation that I try to never fade if possible as its a very strong setup that favors San fran. But it stands alone in the game as everything else points to Carolina.
So the bottom line this morning is that the big moves in the games I like have precluded my from any plays setups or leans.
Also….one thing to keep in mind. This contrary betting analysis is great. Its probably the best approach to handicapping the NFL that I have seen. However remember last season…..one week there were 10 big public favorites….and they all covered easily…..sometimes the public does get it right…although usually by accident:)
Saturday we on our 1 unit play on Boston +13 easily as they beat Miami by 1! Our 1/2 unit play on Eastern Illinois +13 lost. They were getting blown out in the 1st half but had a nice run to cut it to 4 at the half. But that was about it for them. After a 7-0 run by NW in the start of the 2nd half they never recovered.
That brings me to a Comment from yesterday.
“I could have gotten Eastern Illinois +7.5 -105 1st half but chose not to take it…They ended up covering that. 2 of the other 3 teams you mentioned over the last 2 days also covered their 1st half lines. Is there any value in taking these teams you put out 1st half if the line is greater than half of the line for the game?
Unless you have the capability to take my picks over the last 3 years in college baskets and see how they would of done betting the first half there really is no way of knowing if 1st half bets are better. Saying that….logically….since I bet mostly dogs in college baskets…and they are mostly dogs greater the 6.5…..It would seem reasonable that betting the first half could have a better ev as in the 2nd half…class has a tendency to take over. I think its worth taking a look at and I will track these and see what we come up with this season. Thanks for the thought….so my record for first half….Plays 3-0 leans 0-1. Have I got that right?
Too early for NBA and NHL. Some college hoops today…but nothing stands out this morning. Also I am going to post these shortly before 10 pst. unless their are earlier games.
NFL Today….in the Hilton I am around 53.3%. Hopefully I am starting to make my move toward the 60% mark:) I have started out this weekend with a win on Minn..with four more going today.
Public Numbers for the NFL Today:
San Fran 73%
New Orl 67%
And the numbers that count:
Hilton Top 5
These so far this season are an incredible 11-33-1!
Of note none of my hilton picks today fade these…and I am with them on chicago…that is not a good sign:(
I will update a bit later with plays and comments.
Good Luck Today