New England is down to +1 on most books. The public number is down to 39% on New England. So we have a reverse line move with the public and line clearly going in opposite directions. I’m addition all of my variables point strongly to New England. The only thing keeping it from being a play is my models show the game to be fairly valued at a pick.
Saying that for me it would be New England or a pass. I did bet the game and took New England +3-130. I doubt you can get +3 anywhere now. So I am not putting the game out as a play….
Sunday nfl tracking setup ( I do not bet these)
New England +1
In the early NFL games not much in the way of plays today. Three games however it would be pass or that side are……Cleveland and the Jets. Neither are a play for me or even a lean as my models show the games to be fairly valued. However the public numbers would say to me not to take the other side of these. There really was not much to pick from. Atlanta was the standout. The rest were games where nothing was that clear cut.
Sunday NCAA BB Play
531 N Carolina +10.5
1st Half +6
“Would like to hear your thoughts about SD if you have time. Thanks”
I have conflicting signals on the game. My models show KC to be a bit undervalued at -3.5 today. However with 34 % of the public on San Diego there is a reverse line move on Pinnacle and Cris. Also our public indicator Bovada has the game at -5. So for me it would be San Diego or Pass. With the conflicting signals I am passing on the game.
Saturday was a good day for plays. Our two 1 unit plays in College football both won. Our 1 unit play in the NBA also won. Our half unit play in college baskets lost and was not close.
Our two leans in the NBA lost.
Today lets get the NFL out of the way first so I can start working on the other sports.
NFL Public Numbers:
Green Bay 60
San Fran 81
Hilton Top 5
The top 5 was back on track last week going 0-4-1! Bringing the record to date to 15-38-2.
I am at a little over 54% in the Hilton contest and have to get together a good run to get to over 60%. A good start to this week with Atlanta. But two of my picks today are in the Hilton top 5:( NE and Dallas. The jets is no where to be found in the top 5 and I am fading their SF pick with Washington Monday night.
One game that is interesting today at least from a line standpoint is Houston -10. Last I looked there were 2-8 on a 8 game losing streak! And they are a ten point favorite. The public is on Jacksonville getting the 10 by 56%. My models show the game to be fairly valued. Logically I can see why the public is on Jacksonville today…however its public logic. For me it would be either laying the 10 or pass on the game…of course I am passing.
I will update a bit later with any NFL plays and also the rest of the sports today.
Good Luck Today