In tonights NFL game 73% of the pubic is on the giants with the line moving from the Giants favored by 1 to Washington favored by 1. This is a reverse line move. My models show the game to be fairly valued however variable point to Washington. I need the models to be a play but this is enough for a Tracking Setup:
Sunday NFL Tracking Setup ( I do not bet these)
Sunday NBA Play
Sunday NCAA BB Play
553 George Wash +8
1st Half +4.5
I am going to do something new on College hoops. I am going to point out games where
my models favor convincingly one side of the game. Just remember the models are usually the least prognostic of what I use.
Models favoring a side ( I do not bet these)
Wichita St +3.5 W
550 CS Full +3
527 Oregon St +3
560 Belmont +4
523 N Carolina -7.5
Quite a bit of movement in the NFL in the early games. Denver is now up to -6. -7 on Bovada! the line started out at -3.5 even on Pinnacle and -3-105 on Cris. Thats a huge move off the opening line without any injury. Interesting that this move occurred with only 61% of the public on DEnver…You would think it would be higher.
My models show Denver to be quite a bit overvalued. However I have no variables that support either side of the game and with the public 39% on KC I have no interest in the game. But I would not consider Denver after this large a move. The opening lines are just not that far off.
The other game that has some interest to me is Houston as they were my top pick in the Hilton contest. The public is pounding New England at 79%. But the line has not moved with the public. At Pinnacle -9.5 +117 to -7+105. On Cris -7 to -6.5-115. And Bovada of course has -9-105!
My models are the only thing keeping this away from being a play for me. The show New England at -7 to be fairly valued. However the variables I look at are all stacked up in favor of Houston. I did make a bet on the game at +9-120 but that is not available anywhere now.
Sunday NFL Tracking Setup
I do have another early game in the Hilton contest. Tenn +3.5. This game looks much better if the public number is <40. I had anticipated when I put the play in that the number would be under 40 and right now it sits right on 40. However this week was much tougher then usual as the public sentiment was only one sided in a few games. Right now Tenn is most likely the least attractive of my 5 hilton picks even with the line looking like it might head down to -3. I will have some comments on the afternoon games a bit later. Saturday we went 1-0 on our nba play on Utah +8.5 as they won the game by 8! Our lean in NCAA FB lost on Kentucky +3.5 and it never had a chance. Chicago in the NHL was good if you were lucky enough to get plus odds. I could not as it was only available at a few books. Today a breather with quite a few games less then yesterday to take a look at. In the NFL: Public Numbers % Indianapolis 64 Denver 65 jacksonville 61 carolina 52 Chicago 68 Arizona 55 jets 52 buff 70 san fran 50 new eng 81 san diego 63 giants 75 New Orleans 56 Hilton top 5 BUF -3 TB +8 DEN -4.5 SEA -4.5 NYJ -2 Last week the top 5 finally had a good week going 5-0 bringing their record to a dismal 20-38-2. I am with them on Seattle and not fading them in any game. Interestingly I am noticing a shift in the type of plays in the top 5. The big public games that were prevalent early are missing. I would of thought New England would be #1 in the top 5. In any event I have no wiggle room in the hilton contest. My record is 32-27-1 54.23%. I need to get over 60% to cash. I cannot fade a bad week. Not a good spot to be in however a nice run in the last 5 weeks would put me over 60% so we will see. I will update a bit later with any plays. Good Luck Today RickJ Rickjshandicappingpicks.com Twitter: rickjsportplays Twitter: rickjswingtrade