5:10 Update

Sunday NFL Lean ( I do not bet these)

Carolina +3

If you can get 3.5 its a play but since its not widely available I am putting +3 out as a lean. I did get 3.5.

12:30 Update

Sunday NFL Tracking Setup ( I do not bet these)

Tenn +12.5

9:50 Update:

A comment:

“Curious why Cleveland didn’t make a play or lean?”

A lot to like about cleveland….reverse line move on both cris and Pinnacle. Bovada has the line higher then the rest. The public is only 21% on Cleveland. However my models say that New England is undervalued at -10. So despite the numbers I am passing on the game.

9:30 Update

Sunday NFL Play
1 Unit
Washington +3.5

Sunday NFL Lean ( I do not bet these)

Jets -3

7:30 Update

A comment:

“surprised MIN didn’t make the cut for your contest picks.”

Minn was in consideration as was Cleveland. The other games seemed a bit better. Right now the Jets look like they were the right pick….As does the bears although the bears looked a lot better when the line was -1. But it looks like they may be heading that way again. But your right…Minn could of been in there easily.

A good day Saturday with our 1 unit plays going 3-0. Our Football play on SMU +14 was an easy winner as they only lost by 3. Our two college basketball games covered rather easily as they stayed under the number and the end game was not a factor.

Public Numbers in the NFL:

KC 86%
Balt 75%
New Eng 82%
Oakland 65%
Cinci 59%
New Orl 69%
Det 52%
Pitt 61%
Tampa 62%
Denver 74%
Ariz 52%
San Diego 59%
Seattle 53%
Green Bay 56%
Dallas 69%

Hilton Top 5


Last week the Hilton went back to consistency after a 5-0 week to go 2-3 bringing their record to 22-41-2 or 37%.

I am fading two of the top 5 and am with them on none of the games. I am just under 55% and 3 pts out of 30th place with 20 games left to go. So………a bad week and i’m done ….several good weeks and im in the hunt. 4 good weeks and I cash…its as simple as that:)

I will update a bit later with any plays or leans.

A comment:

“Morning Rick. Followed you for years. Just wondering why you seem to have Tennessee a lot as a pick. I remember them being a pick quite often last year and losing. I dont want to jinx your Tennessee pick today but I think they have lost 3 times for you this year. Wondering why they come up so often as a pick??? thanks”

For me each week is a new week. My methods tend to go against very good teams and with some of the worst teams so its no wonder some of my picks will show up on the same teams from time to time. I usually do not let it influence my picks…however with Jacksonville this season I did put them on the No bet list after their dismal first half. Officially they are off the list as they have now shown they are competitive. But normally I do not adjust for that. Find it better to keep my personal bias away from handicapping.

Good Luck Today

Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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