Final Update:
Nothing today in college hoops , nba or nhl.
As far as the remaining nfl games today….. Oakland at +6 and 17% of the betting looks pretty attractive. However my models have KC undervalued. Variables point to Oakland…so a pass for me. The Jets at +10 has a lot going for it…25% betting with a reverse line move. However again my models show Carolina to be undervalued….with variables pointing to jets…so a pass. Another reverse line move on Green Bay and Pitt tonight. But conflicting signals keep me away from both games. Along with my models not confirming the public sentiment.
So I am taking the rest of the day off.
9:30 Update
Sunday NFL Play
1 Unit
Minn +6.5
Sunday NFL Tracking setup ( I do not bet these)
Giants +9.5
Saturday we went 1-2 on our NCAA BB 1 unit plays and 0-1 on our NBA 1 unit play. It was looking like an 0-4 day but S. Alabama had a great 2nd half to cover against Gonzaga.
Today too early for plays or setups.
Public Numbers in the NBA:
%
Atlanta 53
San Fran 77
Ariz 69
New Orl 78
Seattle 73
Chicago 68
Indy 71
Jacks 63
New Eng 66
Phil 83
Carol 74
KC 85
Dallas 64
Cinci 65
Hilton top 5
KC -4.5
PHI -5
MIA +2.5
PIT +3
JAX +2.5
The top 5 went 4-1 last week bring its record to 26-42-2.
I am with the top 5 on Miami and Pitt. Its obvious those were taken as a result of the line difference. That was a consideration in my picking them but also my handicapping lead me to those sides also. I am fading Their Phil side and still think that is definitely the right side of the game. Their top pick on KC looks good based upon my models but if I had to bet the game I would discard my models and go with Oakland….with 85% of the betting on KC it would be a pass or Oakland for me no matter how good KC looks. As far as their Jacksonville pick….The betting is on Jacksonville the home dog but the line has moved from -2.5 to -3 on Buffalo …Need I say more:) I am sure many people today are betting Jacksonville on the Moneyline…after all they are on quite a streak.
I am just under 53% on the Hilton contest. My 2-3 week last week dropped my quite a bit out of a chance to get into the top 30. I would need a monster 3 weeks to break the 30 barrier….most likely 80%:( But their is a mini contest the last 3 weeks so….lets see if I can get into the hunt on that one.
I will update a bit later with plays, leans, and setups.
Good Luck Today
RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
