Nothing today in college hoops , nba or nhl.
As far as the remaining nfl games today….. Oakland at +6 and 17% of the betting looks pretty attractive. However my models have KC undervalued. Variables point to Oakland…so a pass for me. The Jets at +10 has a lot going for it…25% betting with a reverse line move. However again my models show Carolina to be undervalued….with variables pointing to jets…so a pass. Another reverse line move on Green Bay and Pitt tonight. But conflicting signals keep me away from both games. Along with my models not confirming the public sentiment.
So I am taking the rest of the day off.
Sunday NFL Play
Sunday NFL Tracking setup ( I do not bet these)
Saturday we went 1-2 on our NCAA BB 1 unit plays and 0-1 on our NBA 1 unit play. It was looking like an 0-4 day but S. Alabama had a great 2nd half to cover against Gonzaga.
Today too early for plays or setups.
Public Numbers in the NBA:
San Fran 77
New Orl 78
New Eng 66
Hilton top 5
The top 5 went 4-1 last week bring its record to 26-42-2.
I am with the top 5 on Miami and Pitt. Its obvious those were taken as a result of the line difference. That was a consideration in my picking them but also my handicapping lead me to those sides also. I am fading Their Phil side and still think that is definitely the right side of the game. Their top pick on KC looks good based upon my models but if I had to bet the game I would discard my models and go with Oakland….with 85% of the betting on KC it would be a pass or Oakland for me no matter how good KC looks. As far as their Jacksonville pick….The betting is on Jacksonville the home dog but the line has moved from -2.5 to -3 on Buffalo …Need I say more:) I am sure many people today are betting Jacksonville on the Moneyline…after all they are on quite a streak.
I am just under 53% on the Hilton contest. My 2-3 week last week dropped my quite a bit out of a chance to get into the top 30. I would need a monster 3 weeks to break the 30 barrier….most likely 80%:( But their is a mini contest the last 3 weeks so….lets see if I can get into the hunt on that one.
I will update a bit later with plays, leans, and setups.
Good Luck Today