Sunday

2:40 Update

Sunday NCAA BB Play
1 Unit
834 UL Monroe +7.5

2:00 Update

Sunday NCAA BB Play
1 Unit
840 G.Mason +11.5

8:45 Update

Most likely no plays in the NFL this weekend. Although the setups look pretty good with variables the numbers on the games are not that far off what my models show for value on the game.

Sunday NFL Tracking Setups ( I do not bet these)

Buffalo +1.5
Houston +9

Looking over the early games Houston is the top contrary public pick at 19% as a +9.5 Home dog. If my models showed value on Houston I would be betting them as everything else I look at points to houston today. Jacksonville is an interesting game with 68% on Jacksonville as a home dog against Tenn. My models show the value to be slightly on Jacksonville with my variables pointing also to Jacksonville. However the 68% of the betting on Jacksonville puts the game in a pass category. If I had to bet the game I would ago against my variables and models…but I am passing.

Washington +3 looks fine. I was close to putting them out as a lean but a few things kept me from doing that.

Saturday we had a good day going 2-0 on our 1 unit college hoops plays. And 2-0 or our Bowl game 2nd half leans. This picking every game got me thinking about 2nd half wagers in college bowl games. If things work out well on these half time bets I may move them up to 1/2 unit plays next season.

Too early for plays

Public numbers in the NFL:

Betting %
miami 73
Carolina 55
Dallas 65
St. Louis 64
Chicago 55
Cleveland 51
KC 74
Cinci 67
Denver 81
Jacks 71
Seattle 56
detroit 55
San diego 58
Pitt 56
New Eng 59
San Fran 71

Hilton top 5

PIT +7
CIN -7
CAR -3
MIA -2.5
NE +2.5

Last week the top 5 went 3-2 bringing their record this season to 29-44-2.

Interestingly although pitt was the top pick at +7 over half the field passed on the game.

I need at least an 8-2 the final 2 weeks to cash and then it will be close. But If I get in the top 30 I most likely will win the final 3 week contest. So this week needs to be 4-1 or better. I have been in worse spots:)

Plays and comments a bit later

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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