1:05 Update

I am going to be gone most of the morning tomorrow so will not be around for the early bowl game.

Monday NCAA Bowl game play
1 unit
Middle Tenn St +6.5

1:00 Update

In the afternoon games the best to me is Oakland +10. I am going to put it out as a tracking setup rather then a play. My models show the game to be fairly valued.

Sunday NFL Tracking Setup ( I do not bet these)

Oakland +10

I would not want to be on the other side of either San Diego, Seattle, or Arizona.

9:00 Update

Nothing in the early games. The best to me in the early games are Atlanta +6 and Minn -1. But these are not tracking setups or leans. Might be a play this afternoon in the NFL. But the final week is more of a crap shoot then the 1st week of the season.

A Comment:

“am curious on why you like Dallas today instead of passing in the game. I feel like with tony romo out and Dallas not having a good defense it’s really hard to put value on this game in either direction.”

My models show Phil quite a bit over valued. Part of that is Romo…however the adjustment seems to me to be far too much. Also Variable strongly point to Dallas. In addition with 30% of the betting on Dallas Pinnacle line moved from -7.5+106 to -6.5-104. That is quite a move with only 30% of the betting on them. As far as not having a good defense I try to stay away from considering fundamental considerations as I feel they are already in the line and if anything overcompensate for the deficiency in defense.

Saturday was a good day with our 1 unit College hoop plays going 2-1 and our 1 unit bowl game play 1-0. Our hoop plays although going 2-1 our loser never had a chance and our 2 winners could of gone either way at the end…both were very close.

Our Bowl game play on Rutgers was an easy win. My for fun picks went 2-2.

In the hilton contest..I am tied for 78th….2.5 pts out of 30th. A 5-0 day will most likely not get me to 30. Also for the final 3 week contest I am 7-3. There is one 5-0 team…Again a 5-0 final week would most likely not get me to first in the final 3 week contest.

% numbers for todays games:

Carolina 60
Green Bay 70
Tenn 59
Pitt 80
Giants 62
Cinci 58
Jacksville 52
Phil 70
Miami 55
Det 60
New Eng 72
New Orl +67
Denver 73
San Fran 63
KC 58
Seattle 61

Hilton Top 5


I am with them on the top 2. I am on the other side of Phil. Green Bay line was put out before it was announced Rogers was going to play. Similar to last week. Again my preference would be they scratch the game. But again over half the field did not take Green Bay today.

top 5 record
Last week top 5

I will update about 15 to 30 min before game times today.

Good luck Today

Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

  • Kyle

    Have you ever cashed in the Hilton? What % of the Hilton field do you think are +Ev betting the NFL?

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