Sunday NCAA Hoop PLay
Washington St +11
One more NFL Game today. 60% of the betting is on San Fran. Pinnacle the line opened at pick -110 to -3-123. Crise -2.5 to -3-120 and Bovada -3-120
My models say San Fran is undervalued…but my variable say Green Bay is the side to be on. One other consideration is the move to 3. I do not think you want to go with the move to 3. 3 is a number that once it gets there you either have to fade or pass. I am passing. At +3.5 it would be hard to stay away from green bay…..hopefully I will not have that decision to make as it still is not clear cut to me that the ev is enough to make it a play. Again at +3 or higher its Green bay or pass. I am passing on the game.
Should be a hoop play a bit later.
Rick I am curious as to how a road team traveling across the country after playing a grueling game last week and now playing a team with arguably the best home field advantage in the league with betting split just about even on the game
makes it as a play. Seems out of character compared to your normal approach. Thanks
I’m not getting the San Diego play either. I’d bet my roll on Cincy to cover.
Saturday we went 2-0 on 1 unit college hoops plays and 2-0 on college hoop leans. Our 1 unit nba play lost and my for fun pick in the bowl game lost.
Well my San diego pick is not very popular today. In the playoffs the % number under 50% is significant as opposed to more stringent numbers in regular season. In addition as we get closer to game time there is a clear cut reverse line move on both pinnacle and Cris.
Of course every one looks at games a bit differently. And who am I to say that Cinci for the reasons above will not blow out San Diego….anything of course can happen. My money today will be on San Diego.
Today I am going to make it quick on the football games.
Sunday NFL Play
San Diego +6.5
Models and variables strongly favor san diego today
San Fran models favor San Fran but variables favor Green Bay. A pass
In the bowl game Models favor Ball st and variables favor Ball st. My for fun pick is Ball st -7
I will update a bit later with any nba college hoop or nhl plays
Good LUck Today