Saturday we had an easy win with our college hoop 1 unit play. Northwestern +12 won the game outright!

Our tracking setups went 17-13-2. **** 1-2. *** 8-9-2 ** 8-2

One other thing I have noticed is the short dogs you might want to consider taking the money line rather then the spread line. It seems so far that these short dog plays do as well if not better that way. If I have time I will start tracking short dog money line otherwise I will leave that up to you.

Too early for plays:

Sunday Ncaa Hoops Tracking setups:

Rutgers +4.5 L
W Mich -7 L
Towson +3 W
Iona -10.5 W

Two games today in the NFL.

Public numbers
New England 68%
San Fran 67%

One thing to note is the betting is strongly on both dogs. Normally the public loves the favorites so when they are strongly on the dogs that is a real red flag that you need to seriously consider the favorite on the game irregardless what your instincts tell you.

In Seattle we have the line movement contrary to the betting. Pinnacle -3.5 -105 to -3.5-113
Cris -3-125 to -4 and our Public Backup indicator Bovada -3-130. The public is clearly on the dog heavy in this game with the “sharps” taking the favorite.

My models show that Seattle is undervalued even at -4. The variables on the game are neutral…at least the ones that I consider.

For me….its either Seattle or a pass. If the variables strongly pointed to Seattle I would put the game out as a play.

Sunday NFL Lean
Seattle -3.5

Denver however is not that clear cut. The line movement has been with the action and strongly. Pinnace -7+102 to -5-103 Cris -6-105 to -5 and Bovada -4-120

My models show Denver fairly valued at -5. Variables point strongly to New England. For me this game is a clear cut pass with the public on the dog 67%. My hard and fast rule in the NFL is never to bet with the public.

I will update a bit later with any plays.

Good Luck Today

Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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