Its been about 10 days ago when I posted some comments about the superbowl and not much has changed. The only change is the public betting on Seattle is now up to 30%.
Both Pinnacle and Cris have the game at -2. On pinnacle if you like the -2 you only have to lay -101. And our public indicator Bovada is at -3. Perhaps the only book in the country that has the game posted at 3. If you like the dog you have to lay -120.
My thoughts on the game is that its either Seattle or a pass for me. If the game were -3 I would consider putting the game out as a play…at -3.5 a play definitely. I bet the +3-120 about 10 days ago.
My models are all in agreement that the game should be around a pick. Also all are in agreement that Seattle perhaps should be around a .25 to .50 favorite. So they indicate that seattle is favored by a very small amount to win the game. The variable are sparse on the game as many of the variable I consider are based upon home away situations as opposed to neutral fields. But one of the variable I do look at that does not consider home field points strongly to Seattle.
At +2 the models do not cover any key numbers so a play on the game is out of the question. No key numbers means to me that the edge is very small. But lets take a look at the money line.
Pinnacle opened at -125 +113 and is now -121 +112. So interestingly on Pinnacle you do not have the money line moving with the action….a small move contrary to the action which is interesting considering that the line opened on Pinnacle at pick and now -2. My guess however is the money line was not posted until after the line moved to -2. But am not positive about that. On Cris -120 +100 tp -133 to -113. And Bovada -140 to +120.
One thing to note…..Pinnacle has a 9c spread on the moneyline compared to 20c on Cris and Bovada….but on both 20c money line spreads you can get a better number on the dog. To even make the point better Matchbook has a 1c spread…and you can only get +114 there! So it pays to shop around.
Enough rambling ….my Superbowl Lean is Seattle with the money line….+113.
One other caveat…for me the super bowl is just another game. Its obvious the value is on seattle but at -2 and no key numbers its not that strong on the points. Finally there is no reason to throw out your money management considerations for the super bowl.
And….one more thing….since I am back to playing poker on a semi regular basis I have the inside information on the game. The poker player indicator is perhaps the strongest thing I have to consider. Almost without exception everyone likes Denver. Now…..even though finding a poker player that likes Seattle is like finding a needle in a haystack…..no one laughed or got upset when I said I tended to like Seattle. Its absolutely the nuts when A poker player goes crazy when you tell them who you like…and that just did not happen.
Over the years that has happened about a dozen times…..and although I do not keep records….I do not think I have ever lost a bet when a poker player actually displayed anger at my pick.
What ever side you take…Good luck…and enjoy the game! It should be a good one.
A good day Saturday. Our 1 unit college hoop plays went 4-1-1. 3-1-1 on Sides and 1-0 on totals. Wilmington , georgia tech and the total were all easy winners. Hofstra never had a chance and Drexel the end game really went our way:)
Tracking setups also had a good day going 9-6-2. *** 4-2 ** 5-4-2
Too early for plays….
Sunday College Hoop Tracking setups ( I do not bet these)
I will update with plays about 15 to 30 min before game time.
Also I will have some comments about the superbowl in a bit.
Good Luck Today