9:50 Update

Sunday NFL Play
1 unit
Tenn +7
1/2 Unit
Tampa +7

Saturday we won our 1/2 unit play on Wake Forest in an easy win 10 -20. Our slight edges went 1-1 with Troy covering and Connecticut getting blown out.

The Hilton top 5 picks (10-5-1) You should look to fade these

Green Bay
Kansas City
New Orleans

I am fading two of the top five picks.

Atlanta 82
Indi 78
Pitt 70
Green Bay 68
Det 66
New Orl 65
San Diego 65
Mia 58
Hou 56
Baltimore 56
Phil 52

Right now I am 10-5 in the hilton contest. After the first two weeks being 4-1 I slipped a bit last week with a 2-3 week. So going into week 4 I am hitting a respectable 66%.

I am sure you have noticed Jacksonville was not on my picks this week:) Let me start out by saying on that game its either Jacksonville or a pass. I didnt pick the game despite all variables strongly pointing to jacksonville for two reasons. 1. Jacksonville has 35% of the betting on them. Considering how poorly they have played I am surprised they are getting this much support. 2. My models strongly point to San Diego. I made some tweeks in the models before the start of the season and they have been spot on so far this season. So I am passing completely on the game.

My first three picks were the only obvious picks to me. Then I had to pick two more leaving out jacksonville for the above reasons. My fourth and fifth pick Oakland and Dallas were all slightly favored by the variables but strongly favored by the models. However the numbers are neutral on both as Oakland has 42% of the betting and Dallas 35%.

Looking at the poker indicator the worst I should do is 3-2. The general consensus was among the people I discussed my picks with was I have a basketful of losers. One person was kind enough to ask if I was intentionally trying to pick losers:) My usual response to this is for him to pick 5 teams and we can go 1,000 for who does the best. But I was concentrating on trying to win a hand at the time after a four hour dry spell. So I missed out on what is typically easy money. I must be slipping.

I am going to wait to put out plays as many of the games are jumping around quite a bit.

Now onto poker:

There is a player in the game that has been struggling quite a bit. I came in early Saturday morning to get into an almost full game. The player was stuck pretty good and had been playing all night. Now a hand came down where the hand was capped preflop with five way action. Flop came KK8. Plenty of action again narrowing the field to 3 way. A on turn with again plenty of action. The A on river with a bet and a raise and a call.

The loser on the hand had KK23. So he flopped four kings and picked up the nut low draw on the turn. And as luck would have it he lost to two running aces making the other person four aces!

Thats about the worst I have seen in Omaha 8. To the person’s credit he took it in stride and silently left the game after a round.

Good Luck Today

Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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