Well well well….it was looking grim at the half time…i even thought it could be a 0-5 day. But things turned around in all the games in the second half and after the smoke cleared it was a 4-1 day. Bringing my record to 17-8. A respectible 58% after week 5!
Tonight one game:
The betting is on cinci 58% with the line moving from pick to +2.5. Models clearly favor new england. But no key numbers.
Variables are neutral on the game with variables on both sides of the game. Public number do not support either side.
The line had been up to +3 about an hour ago at most books but that has come back down to +2.5.
At +3 i was considering taking the +3 but no longer have to consider it. The game is a clear cut pass for me.
Also consider that cinci is a top five pick in the hilton contest. However the fades have been taking a beating so far this season.
Looking over the Tampa game again the line is now a solid -10.5 with a few places having +11. As I write this -11 is becoming a common line on the game. One of the things making this game attractive was the reverse line move off of 11 with <30% of the betting on tampa. This is now a thing of the past. There is still a lot to like about Tampa but without the reverse line move I cannot even call the game a slight edge. Lets say for me It would be Tampa or a pass...I am going to pass completely on the game unless we get a good move towards +10.5 at most books before game time. 9:00 Update An hour before game times and the lines have moved quite a bit towards the sharps side. So its looking like if you like the sharp dogs its Saturday evening to bet them. Otherwise you risk letting the lines get away from you. If the closing lines are any indication of value I am in great shape on a few games: St Louis is +4.5 now and even +4 in a few spots. I have St Louis -7. Buffalo is exactly the same +4.5 and +4 in a few spots and I have +7 Baltimore is down to +2.5 in many spots and I have +3.5 Even houston is back to +5.5 after getting to +6.5 . I have +5.5 New Orleans is the only game that has not changed and is moving towards -10.5. I have +10. With all the line moves they take St louis out of a play. Too large a move off the opener to consider betting. That was the one game that looked very good today for a play. I am going to consider putting plays out Saturday night. Tampa is the only game that looks like it may at least be a slight edge. However I am going to wait to see what the line movement is over the next 30 min. Looking at the Pitt Jax game. the line has now moved down to +5.5 with only 24% of the betting on Jax. A clear cut reverse line move. However.......Models and variables both strongly favor Pitt. I am passing on this game completely. Is it too good to be true betting on pitt and only laying -5.5 against the dismal Jax team. We will see how the game plays out. Saturday my one 1/2 unit tied with Iowa St +17. Nothing else looked very good to me. So I passed on the remaining games. Iowa st was looking good at the half with the game tied 6-6. Also they held off a 3rd and 1 at the goal line at the close of the first half. But at the end it took a touchdown with 1 min left on a 3rd and goal to get the tie! Today in the NFL: Hilton top 5 Denver Baltimore San Diego Cin Chi Fading the top 5 has not been very good this season so far with an 8-13 record. Has the makeup of the betting field changed to make such a dramatic change. I doubt it but will be interesting to follow. I am on one of the top 5 picks with baltimore and fading none of the sides. Public Numbers this morning: Pitt 79% (surprised its not 99%) Phil 74% Chi 73% New Orl 72% San Diego 69% Clev 70% Denv 65% Indy 63% Det 59% Dallas 59% Giants 55% KC 51% I listed my top 5 in the order I liked them at the time. This morning is a different order: 1. St Louis 2. Balt 3. Tampa Bay 4. Buff 5. Houston As we go into today my record in the Hilton contest is 13-7 or a respectable 65% going into week 5. There are 3 at 17-3 or an amazing 85%! Although with over 1400 entrants this might be expected with a random distribution. So even at 65% I have a lot of work to do. But things should thin out at the top at the half way mark. Just hope I am not one of the players thinned out:) I will update a bit before game time. Good Luck Today RickJ Rickjshandicappingpicks.com Twitter: rickjsportplays Twitter: rickjswingtrade