4:30 update

Looks like a 2-2 day in the hilton contest with the rams +3.5 tomorrow night. One game tonight


Phil has 49% of the betting and the line has moved from -3 to – 1.5

My models are split on the game with a slight edge on phil at 1.5. Variables favor phil.

Bet or pass
Phil – 1.5

One game looks good tonight in baseball

Slight edge

San fran +118

8:30 Update

The trend continues…sharps are betting down the lines Sunday morning about 2 hours before game time. Miami is down to +2, Buff down to +1, Bears are at +3 although you have to lay more then -110 and St louis is still 3.5 at most books and +3 getting even or +odds.

The best bet of the weekend is St Louis +3.5. The lines have moved too much to consider Miami and Buff….Chicago is purely a model pick…I do not bet those.

Monday NFL Play
1 Unit
St Louis +3 ( If you can get +3.5 which you should if you look its a bonus)

Overall a good day in college football. My addition to the weighting method for college football worked out well. At worst it should keep you away from side that historically have been very low % sides.

Friday results:

1/2 Unit Plays

Slight Edge
0-1 -100
1-0 +110

Pass or bet

Our first NHL setup was looking good as they lead most of the game when Vancouver tied it up in the third and won in a shootout.

Now on to the NFL:

Going into this week my Hilton contest record is 17-8 68%. A good place to be after week 5. Its the best out of the gate I have done since I entered this contest.

My picks this week were easy for the top 4. My fifth pick came down to Bears, Jets, or Oakland. The last two are extreme public fades and the first is a model play. Last year I would of picked between the jets and oakland but this season I am putting a bit more weight on the models in combination with public sentiment and of course variables. My top pick for this weekend lost on Houston so I am 0-1 going into this weeks picks.

Hilton top 5

San diego

The top 5 fades are 11-15 this season. Also note I am with them on Miami and Buffalo. I am not fading any of their top 5 this week. Also note their top 3 are dogs and Miami and Buffalo are not public plays but sharp sides. Could this be a shift in the make up of participants?

Public Numbers:

Denver 84%
San Diego 82%
San Fran 80%
New Eng 75%
Arizona 73%
Green Bay 71%
Balt 70%
Pit 64%
Cinc 60%
Det 59%
Sea 59%
Giants 58%
Ten 57%
Atl 54%

Bet or Pass
Jets +10
Oakland +7

These are the top 2 public numbered games. In addition there is a reverse line move on Oakland. My models do not support the dog their for I did not include them in my hilton picks. But you will not make money in the long haul betting on large public favorites.

I am not sure yet what I will bet today if anything. But I am going to use the same method for the NFL that I started yesterday in college football.

Good Luck Today

Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade

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