4:30 Update

Well the markets opened a little over an hour ago and they are down over 1%. The good news is I am flat waiting for a better opportunity for a swing trade.Right now for me the market is in no mans land. We had a rebound after a historic move to the downside. The rebound was over two days and was another historical two day move. This is not a market that you should be dancing around in. Trades should be planned with risk sizing extra careful.

My thoughts are at some point we head down and test the lows. I do not think its going to be a straight line but this two day rebound does not happen in a healthy market. Now since this market is also news driven any announcement by the fed of no interest rate hike this year or more quantitative easing and then its blastoff to the upside. But so far the fed has been more toward the side of an interest rate increase and they may have backed themselves into a corner for a .25 rate hike this year. Investors are begging for Helicopter Ben to be back at the helm!

My plan is to watch and wait for the next oversold opportunity to initiate mean reversion trades. As far as swing trades I am going to wait a bit until the volatility settles down. This back and forth 200 pts in a day is not a conducive environment for swing trading. I may however look for some day trades or maybe two days to take advantage of what looks like a decent edge.

Traders are getting annihilated right now. Many are basing their decisions on hope and prayer. Not usually a good way to go.

I did get an instructive email the other day:

“Hi Rick,

I’ve seen you talk a lot about proper bankroll in terms of sports betting. When it comes to swing trades, what do you think would be the minimal starting amount to follow your swing trades if you have a low cost brokerage firm?”

My response:

My trading bankroll is $500,000. So…my suggestion if you wanted to follow my trades is just take your starting bankroll for trading and what ever % it is to mine would be the sizing on your trades.

Or another approach. Lets say you have 50,000 investment bankroll. Then risk no more then 1% on the trade and let you bankroll rise and fall with your trades. The 1% will increase and decrease accordingly.

You cannot do that on mean reversion trading since there is no risk amount so I would do the sizing in the first paragraph on those trades.

In addition you can also take the trades with 3x etf on indexs. Or in the case of highly liquid stocks you can trade options. Keep in mind however that option trading is pretty tricky. Not only is their a valuation concern but the commissions compared to the stock trade itself is a lot more. 10 option contracts in and out is 41$ where I trade compared to the equity trade being 4.00!

Finally I would stay away from margin trading. Its tempting but margin trading is many traders downfall. They get over leveraged and then hit something like we have this month and its lights out. Look at having a rule of no trading on margin as another way to reduce risk.

Keep in mind that no matter how you reduce risk there is always the situation with gaps on the opening. So no matter how careful you are in reducing risk there will be times that you take a hit larger then expected

This is just to give you a rough idea. There are plenty of good articles on position sizing and risk management for trading.

If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: riccja3@gmail.com

9:30 Update

Sunday MLB Plays
Detroit +184
Seattle +155

There are still 2 weeks left before the Westgate Super Contest starts – If you need a proxy service to enter – “lasvegascontestproxy.com” I know the owner of the service and can highly recommend this Proxy service. So if you’re from out of town…or out of the country and have the urge to enter the Westgate NFL contest this season …give them a call. I am not affiliated with this service nor do I get any remuneration for recommending them.

Saturday we had no MLB plays. In preseason NFL our setups went 3-3. 2-3 on the sides and 1-0 on the total. These are best used with your successful handicapping methods for preseason. If you happened to bet these you had an exciting time as at one point after losing the first one and Atlanta with the under bother winning it looked like they might go 4-1-1. Green Bay had the ball and needed one more score to Tie and San Fran imploded in the 4th. But an exciting day. Nice to finally see the NFL about to get in full swing.

Today its a bit early for MLB Plays but there are several that look promising. I have tightened up MLB quite a bit going into the final stretch of the season.

Early MLB Weightings:

913 DET – A Simon 3++
914 TOR – M Buehrle
925 BOS – W Miley 1.5
926 NYM – N Syndergaard
917 LAA – J Weaver
918 CLE – J Tomlin 1+
915 KC – D Duffy 1-
916 TB – N Karns
905 SD – J Shields
906 PHI – A Asher 2
927 NYY – N Eovaldi
928 ATL – J Teheran 2+
903 COL – J De La Rosa 0.5
904 PIT – C Morton
901 MIA – B Hand 0
902 WAS – S Strasburg 0
921 HOU – L McCullers
922 MIN – E Santana 1
919 SEA – E Olmos 3
920 CHW – J Quintana
907 CIN – J Lamb
908 MIL – W Peralta 1-
923 BAL – M Gonzalez 0
924 TEX – D Holland 0
909 STL – J Garcia 1
910 SF – C Heston
929 OAK – J Chavez 0
911 CHC – J Arrieta
912 LAD – A Wood 1

I will update with plays if they become clear.

There are two NFL Preseason games today and so far I do not see anything that is near to a setup. But its early. Let me also mention that handicapping preseason is completely different then regular season. So much different that you could even categorize them as two different sports!

Swing trade and Market comments will be posted this afternoon.

Good Luck Today

twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)

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