One more game tonight in the NFL:
Betting is 65% on Green Bay with the line moving from -3-117 to -3.5+108. At most books its -3 and you have to lay more then 110.
Models favor Seattle strongly. Variables favor Seattle but its not 100%. The public number at 35% is nothing to get excited over. I do not play on betting the game. At 3.5 I think you either have to take seattle or pass on the game. As 3.5 is not widely available I am not going to put it out as a setup. Also Seattle +3.5 is my fifth pick in the hilton contest. I need that to be 4-1 today and get back to even after a 1-4 start. Its been a great weekend so far for me on Football both college and pros. And I even got Boston +173 in MLB to win. Wonders never cease to amaze today!
Betting is 84% on Miami and the line has stayed pretty steady at -6-105 to -6-102.
Models slightly favor Miami. Not enough to give it any consideration. Variables Strongly favor Jacksonville.
I would put it out as a Bet or Pass but I have one model that strongly favors Miami so I am just going to pass completely on the game.
Betting is 85% on Baltimore and the line has moved contrary to the betting from -6-105 to -5-110. This is quite a move considering only 15% of the betting is on Baltimore. As far as Models its the same situation as the Miami game with the exception is there is a reverse line move on Oakland.
This reverse line move is not enough for me to bet the game but its certainly a bet or pass
Bet or pass Oakland +5
Betting is 50-50 on the game. The line has moved from -5-123 to -6.5-113 and is -7 at some books. A strange move where the betting is split exactly 50/50. Models strongly favor Dallas. Variables are neutral. I am passing but at +7 there has to be an overlay there. Not enough for me to bet the game.
It looks like a good chance the Washington bet is going to be good and my hilton picks look like 3-1 unless the bears can perform a miracle in the 4th quarter. But their stellar defense is probably not going to let that happen:(
One trend that has established itself that is a change from the way things used to be. If you were a sharp bettor (betting against the public) then you almost always got a better line waiting until game time. If you bet the public favorites then you wanted to get down as early as possible. This has changed dramatically. Last year we saw the change taking place. This season is rather dramatic. Now if your a sharp bettor you want to get down early. For instance Washington +3.5 was available everywhere early then when I put the game out in about half the books and now hard to find.
If you go down almost every public favorite you will see the same thing. Oakland down to +4 tampa +8.5 buff -1 cleveland +1 and they are the fav at some books. But its a trend worth knowing as it will allow you to get bettor lines depending on what side you like.
Bet or Pass
Sunday MLB Play
Here are the early MLB Weightings:
Might be a play today in MLB I will keep a watch and see how things develop.
967 KC – K Medlen
968 DET – A Simon 2
965 BOS – R Hill 3+
966 TOR – M Buehrle
971 CHW – J Danks 0
972 CLE – J Tomlin 0
969 BAL – K Gausman 0
970 TB – J Odorizzi 0
953 MIA – J NICOLINO 0
954 WAS – S Strasburg 0
951 PHI – A Nola 1
952 ATL – J Teheran
973 OAK – A Brooks 0
974 HOU – C McHugh 0
975 LAA – M Shoemaker 1
976 MIN – T Duffey
955 CIN – A DeSclafani 1
956 MIL – A Pena
963 STL – C Martinez 1
964 CHC – J Lester
977 SEA – F Hernandez
978 TEX – D Holland 2
957 ARI – J Hellickson 0
958 SF – T Hudson 0
961 SD – J Shields
962 COL – K Kendrick 1
959 PIT – G Cole
960 LAD – M Bolsinger 1
979 NYY – C Sabathia 2
980 NYM – M Harvey
Saturday was a good day in College football. Our play on S Alabama +17.5 won out right in OT and our setups in College football went 5-1.
We have a carryover on Washington +3.5. Not much else looks good enough to bet for me.
Public numbers for this morning:
New Orleans 68
NY Giants 55
Hilton Top 5
I am on the other side of two of them. A few things to note. Some very high public numbers again this week. If a game is over 80% you either take the other side or pass. You could blindly take the dogs with under 20% for the season and most likely come out better then 80 % or higher of the public that bets on sports. Also Minn the Favorite only 35% of the betting on them. Whenever you get a relatively high % of the better on the dog you either take the fav or pass. These are two rules that will make you or save you a lot of money on the season.
I will update with other comments or plays later.
Good Luck Today
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