12:50 Update

Bet or Pass
Bears +15

9:35 Update

Sunday NFL Play
Dallas -1

Not much else I can see in the early games.

9:30 Update

Sunday MLB Play
Detroit +116

9:00 Update

Early MLB Weightings:

927 CHW – E Johnson 2
928 NYY – L Severino
917 TB – M Andriese 1
918 TOR – M Buehrle 0
915 MIN – E Santana
916 DET – R Wolf 3
903 ATL – S Miller
904 MIA – T Koehler 1
901 NYM – J deGrom 0
902 CIN – K Sampson 0
919 BAL – U Jimenez 1
920 BOS – H Owens
905 PHI – A Harang 0
906 WAS – G Gonzalez 0
923 TEX – M Perez 0
924 HOU – D Keuchel 0
921 CLE – D Salazar
922 KC – C Young 1
907 MIL – T Cravy 0
908 STL – J Lackey 0
925 SEA – H Iwakuma 1
926 LAA – J Weaver
929 SF – C Heston 0
930 OAK – S Nolin 0
913 LAD – A Wood
914 COL – C Rusin 2+
911 ARI – Z Godley 1
912 SD – J Shields
909 PIT – A Burnett 1
910 CHC – J Arrieta

Saturday there were no plays but the setups in college football went 3-0. This is on the heels of a 5-1 week last week. Perhaps we are starting to see the beginning of a trend. Betting extremes were pretty much absent during week 4. The one late game I was watching was S. Alabama +17.5 . The public number under 25 most of the week but at game time it ended at 26%. The models favored S Alabama slightly. But at over 25% the edge pretty much evaporates especially with so little else in its favor. I was a good pass as S. Alabama was never having a chance at covering the number. Purdue was another game where it was right on 25% of the betting. But my models strongly favored Bowling Green. Otherwise I would of taken a loss on that game.

So my filters worked out well keeping me away from several losing bets or setups.
The three I picked for setups were the strongest of the days games for me but none reached the threshold of a play as the public numbers were not there. That is a variable that mandatory for me to call a game a play.

Today we have San Fran +6.5 as a play. The line is still +6.5 this morning and its not clear we are going to get the move to 6 or even 5 I predicted yesterday. But if it happens it will most likely be after the first set of games start.

Hilton Top 5 this week

Carolina
Indianapolis
Buffalo
Pit
Baltimore

Carolina is a game that comes along a few times a season in the contest where the line is put out by the hilton before it gets established by the books. In the hilton the line is -4.5 but the line opened at -8. So we have 713 entrants picking Carolina. Myself I need more then just that. If I had a huge lead then taking carolina would be a no brainer. But that’s not the case and I like New Orleans a bit anyway. So am not including that and hopefully we get a big upset in the game!

I am with none of those and on the other side of the Pitt game.

Public numbers this morning
Indy 83
Pitt 79
New Eng 75
Atlanta 74
Ariz 74
seattle 73
buff 70
Denver70
oakl 58
car 57
balt 53
minn 50

I will update on the NFL shortly before game time with any other plays or setups.

This morning I happened to be reading a site that discussed correlations and how often times they are purely random. Keep the examples in this site in mind next time you feel found a correlation that is predictive.

http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

Good Luck Today

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)

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