Final Update

One game tonight in the NFL


Betting is pretty even on the game with 51% on the home Favorite. The line has moved from -3.5+103 to -3+103. Variables are split on the game. Models favor Dallas. I am passing on the game.

1:10 Update

Sunday NFL Play
San Fran +7.5

10:55 Update

Sunday MLB Play
Baltimore +130

MLB Weightings

981 STL – J Lackey 1
982 ATL – S Miller
967 NYY – M Pineda
968 BAL – C Tillman 3
965 LAA – G Richards
966 TEX – C Hamels 1
953 CIN – J Smith 1
954 PIT – J Happ
957 COL – C Bergman 0
958 SF – M CAIN 0
955 MIA – A Conley 0
956 PHI – D Buchanan 0
973 OAK – C Bassitt 1
974 SEA – V Nuno
972 TB – M Moore 1
969 BOS – R Porcello
970 CLE – D Salazar 1
977 DET – D Norris 1
978 CHW – F Montas
975 KC – J Cueto
961 WAS – T Roark 0
962 NYM – J deGrom 0
963 SD – F GARCES 0
964 LAD – C Kershaw 0
959 CHC – D Haren
960 MIL – J Lopez 2
979 HOU – L McCullers
980 ARI – R Ray 1
951 STL – L Lynn 0
952 ATL – M Wisler 0

9:45 Update

Sunday NFL Play
Tampa Bay +3 Even

9:35 Update

Sunday NFL Play
Washington +3

Bet or Pass
Tampa Bay +3

Saturday we on our NCAA FB play with Fla +7. I had mentioned I had bet the game earlier but the line most places was 6 and 6.5. Then about 5 min before game time the line moved to 7 at all books. A few even went to 7.5. And Florida came through with a 38-10 win as a 7 pt dog. Nice to see these setups still work despite the carnage so far in the NFL. The NCAA FB setups both lost going 0-2.

One other housekeeping item. I have not been keeping track of the MLB sides where I show some indication of value. Yesterday they went 7-2 for +700. I think it warrants a closer look at these unfortunately its a bit late in the season to give it any serious consideration. But the change I made about 3 weeks ago certainly is an improvement. During the off season I will see if I can go back and recreate the numbers and how they would of done using these new weightings. Not sure however I can do that though. But I am going to look into it.

Well I guess I had better get going to have any threat of getting int the top 50 in the hilton contest and that is an understatement at 4-11. Its only week 4 but with that record I need to turn it around fast. And fast means like today! I have been asked about changing my methods. Not a chance. So far I see nothing to indicate my methods are done. I am sticking with my methods they have served me very well in the NFL over the years.

So for today:

Hilton Top 5


I am on the other side of one of the picks and not with any of the others.

Jacksonville is a game that comes up from time to time when the line comes out after the hilton puts out the line. If I was in the lead I would be right with them at +9.5 but where I am at now not a chance.

% numbers in the NFL for today

Arizona 80
Carolina 80
Green Bay 78
phil 73
atlanta 68
oakland 67
Jets 64
Indianapolis 64
San Diego 63
Cinci 62
Denver 60
Dallas 56
Giants 55

There are a few games I am looking at for plays today. These games I am sure meet the laugh test after the first three weeks. Since I am not at the poker tables much anymore I cannot really get a feel as to the poker player play of the day. That has been about the best indicator of all time. But I can imagine there are more experts now then ever flush with money after the last week. If history is a guide that door is going to slam shut fairly soon!

I will post plays in about another hour or so.

Good Luck Today

twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)

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