3:34 Update

Since I will be gone all day tomorrow and part of tuesday I am going to make my comments about the market and swing trades now that the globex is open. The market is off about 1/5th of a % 40 min into the globex hours.

I have 1/2 of my mean reversion trade short SPY and the exit on monday if its reached is a close below the 10 day Moving Average. That is substantially below where we are now so it would take a complete crash to get there in one day. Tuesday also is the same exit. So It will be easy to manage the trade if you took it.

The market is as overbought as its been in quite awhile now. Monday however has been seasonally strong so I may take another day or so of heat on these mean reversion trades.

Not much else to add. I would not be planning on adding to the short on Monday. So its just a question of managing this trade. I also have on some other mean reversion trades and have sent out instructions on how to handle these while I am gone. Should be back Wednesday at the latest ….late Monday at the earliest. We will see. But in any event will be nice to get this out of the way. We will see how my luck is running Monday:)

Finally we are about ready to hit the seasonally bullish time of year which usually starts no later then nov 1st. For me I need to see one of the three things I had outlined earlier before positioning long. 1. A break of the lows with a capitulation move (500 to 1000 pts in a day) That is not likely now. 2. A close above the 200 day MA. Not likely to see this week. 3. A weekly close where the nasdaq is leading the SP500. Not likely this week but the most likely of the three.

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12:45 Update

Sunday NFL Play
Detroit +4.5

I have dallas oakland and san fran left in the Hilton contest. There is one thing in each game that is preventing me from even making the games a setup. San Fran at +7.5 is the closest but I am going to avoid that one . Dallas at 17% is tempting but I am going to maintain my discipline and pass that one also. Detroit I passed on in the hilton contest as the line was +2.5 . If it would of been +4.5 it would of been an easy pick.

9:30 Update

Not much has changed looking at the 10:00 games for me. It still looks like Washington is the best of the day. One big move has been Tampa going from -3 to -1. Models point to Tampa at -1. Variables still point to Jacksonville even despite the line move. It would be hard to talk me into taking Jacksonville at +1 ..way too late to the party. But the variables prevent me from putting TB out as a setup.

I will update shortly before the afternoon games.

8:30 Update

Two baseball games today. Both have weightings of 0 0. Variables support kc and tex models support houston and toronto. Betting % not excessive on either game. Both are a clear cut pass for me.

Saturday both our plays won. Nebraska +2.5 covered by a 1/2 pt in an exciting finish. Phil +4.5 in the NBA was an easy winner with Phil winning the game by 2.

Today we have a carry over in the NFL on Washington +7.5.

Hilton top 5
New England

The top 5 so far this season against the spread is 15-5. Pretty impressive considering last season at this time they were hitting around 30%! I would not draw too much into the change as this is pretty normal. Just when you think you have found a sure technique (fading the top 5) you have to endure a 5-15 start! Thats gambling for you. Nothing comes easy. Thats why in the end Money management is key. That will determine above all else whether you will be around at the end of the season and in addition how you will do as a lifetime bettor.

Sure technique is important also. But not near as important as money management. You can see this in the poker rooms every day. There are some great players that are always broke. Except for leaks they let variance take them out. And that violates the Number 1 rule for serious gamblers ….1. Do not let variance determine your fate!!!!! If you do not get that rule you do not have a chance.

Back to business. You note that Houston was no good. This is the third time we have had a line put out by the hilton early before the official line came out that was way off. So on these three games they are now 2-1. I tend to avoid them if I am way behind as it creates and opportunity to pick up if they go down. And with houston going down I now have that opportunity.

I am on the other side of NE and the Giants and not on any of the top 5.

Public numbers for today:

New England 86%
Arizona 81%
Buffalo 77%
Atlanta 76%
Giants 72%
Denver 72%
Jacksonville 65% (a Dog!)
Green Bay 63%
New Orl 62% (a Dog!)
Cinci 59%
KC 53%
Balt 53%

Reverse line moves
Washington +8 to +7
Tenn +3 +1
Oakl +5.5 +4

Variables supporting:


Models supporting

Tampa Bay
San Fran

Not thats as of 6:50 AM. Still a lot of time and the numbers jump around quite a bit. But this should help a bit in evaluating your betting. Overall you do not want to be on the hilton top 5 and you do not want to be on the top % games. If you are then most probably you not only have to overcome the juice but also taking a little worse of what the line should be.

Finally I am out of action on Monday completely. I have surgery early monday and should be back if all goes normal (whatever that is) Tuesday mid afternoon. Wednesday hopefully at the latest. I will be bringing my Ipad with me along with the ability to connect with my home server. But for handicapping monday there will be nothing.

For those of you following my market postings and swing trades. I will post some comments after the globex opens at 3. For those of you following my swing trades I will send out some guidelines for monday as I will not be able to post any comments or trades for monday.

I will update a bit later with any plays or setups for today.

Good Luck Today

If you want to follow my swing trades just send an invite to RICKJSWINGS for a two week free trial.

For those of you whose trial is running out you can sign up for 24$ a month through Paypal. Just send to my email address: riccja3@gmail.com

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