12:45 Update

Looking at the rest of the NFL games today not much interests me. With 36% of the betting on Oakland I would need a 3.5 to give the game consideration. Dallas is out of the question as models strongly point to Seattle. And Denver below 3 does not look very good to me as a wager. Lets see if Cleveland can hold off Arizona..that will be the tough assignment for today!

Not much looks good in the NBA or NHL but might be something a bit later.

9:10 Update

Sunday NFL Plays
Tampa Bay +8
Cleveland +7

Saturday we went 1-1 on our NCAA FB Plays. Charlotte +17 never had a chance and Washington-4 was the exact opposite the game was never in doubt as they won by 46!

Our setups in college football went 1-0-1 and the models 2-3. I probably should track these but for whatever reason I have not. If anyone is keeping a running total on the models send it to me and I will add it to the results page.

Well my performance in the Hilton contest has been less then stellar. Off to a miserable first 3 weeks I have come back now to 16-19 going into week 8. There is really no time left for me to get going as usually to have any chance at cashing you need to be above 500 at the halfway mark. So today it has to be 4-1 or 5-0. A very tough assignment! But stranger things have happened:) We will see.

Hilton top 4
Green Bay

I am fading the top 3. I left out the 5th as the numbers seemed wrong to me. So I will add it once I figure out the right team. The top 5 record is a blistering 22-12-1 going 3-2 last week. Maybe they will falter this week!

Betting %

arizona 84
Seattle 75
Green Bay 74
atlanta 73
Jets 71
Minn 67
Cinci 62
st louis 59
Houston 59
New Orleans 58
San Diego 57
Detroit 54

Reverse line moves
Dallas +4.5

I see the first game starts at 6:30 AM. That is criminal!


The betting is 53% on Detroit (the dog) with the line moving from -6-105 to -3-110. Thats quite a move based upon 53% of the betting. Models favor Detroit Variables are neutral. I am passing on the game. A lot of conflicting signals. First the move off the open right away would preclude you from taking Detroit. The bulk of the betting even at 53% would rule out the favorite. In addition the absence of variables supporting either side seem indicative of a coin toss. This game is about the clearest pass I can see.

I will update with plays and setups a bit later. After all its 5:30 AM:)

Good Luck Today

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