One more game tonight in the NFL
This is my fifth pick in the Hilton contest…Seattle -3 and I need this game for a 4-1 day for hilton picks!
Betting is 55% on the road dog and the line has stayed pretty steady at -3. Models favor Seattle variables are split on the game but slightly favor seattle. I am passing on the game as nothing is very convincing enough to make this a play or a setup. But I will be rooting for Seattle.
Another good day for plays on Saturday. In College hoops our play on Wisconsin Milwaukee U 146.5 was a winner. In the NHL we went 1-1 with Florida +148 winning and Edmonton +195 Losing 4-3. It was tied late but our +195 play could not quite get there. A +1.48 Unit day for plays.
Setups went 1-1 with Idaho +1.5 in college hoops winning easily by 20 but Rice +7.5 in college football getting crushed.
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My picks in the Hilton contest this week in the order I liked them at the time:
1. Washington pick
2. Cleveland +4.5
3. Miami +6.5
4. Detroit +11.5
5. Seattle -3
The only clear cut decision for me was Washington. The rest there are arguments for the other side also. This was one of the tougher weeks for me in deciding the teams to include. And even Washington does not look as good as it did!
Top 5 in the Hilton contest:
Last week the hilton top 5 started coming back to earth with a 1-4 week and now is 25-19-1 overall.
Public numbers for NFL:
Green Bay 80
New Orleans 70
New Engl 70
St Louis 52
Reverse Line Move
Washington (as a home favorite)
public on Dog
They way to use the above is as a general rule you do not want to be on the teams high on the public numbers list. Also you do not want to be on the teams where the betting is primarily on the dog.
These are two good rules that if you incorporate them into your own handicapping will add ev to your methods.
For subscribers I will send out plays most likely a few hours from now. I just woke up about 20 min ago! Slept in this morning.
Good Luck Today
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