Well looks like I am 2-2 in the hilton contest going into this evenings game. I have Cinci +5 in the Hilton contest but its far from a play or a setup as were the rest.
Betting is 57% on Arizona with the line moving from -3.5 to -4. My models strongly favor Cinci and variables are completely neutral on the game. So I will be wanting Cinci to cover tonight but for me the game is a Pass. Sort of boring passing on all the NFL games today but I really am not that much of a gambler:)
Good luck tonight which ever side you choose!
An interesting game this morning in the NFL.
Betting is 52% on the Road Dog but the line has moved from Baltimore +1 to Baltimore -3. Now that is quite a move especially considering only 48% of the betting is on Baltimore. This means to me that some well respected bettors are betting on Baltimore for the books to move the line all the way to -3 without the public pounding the game. As it turns out my models show -3 to be about right! Variables however are split on the game. I am passing on the game.
Not a very good day for plays on Saturday. NHL went 0-2 College Hoops went 1-2 Ncaa Football 0-1.
Setups were NCAA FB 1-4. We were rolling along and then a losing day. This is the nature of sports betting. However if you graph your plays the line should have an upward bias after say 100 to 200 wagers. If not then you need to reevaluate.
I had a few later games in college football I was looking at but Hawaii only had 18% of the betting on them but the line dropped from +10 to +7.5. California was another I was looking at but the line again dropped from +12 to +10 despite 72% of the betting on Stanford. Staying away turned out to be the right approach as both would of lost. We really are seeing a huge difference this year with most of the big moves going against the big public favorites. I hope this tendency is short lived:)
Saying that their is only one way to bet these plays. Set aside a bankroll you can afford to lose with no sweat. Then have a unit size of 2% of your bankroll on each wager. Do not pick and choose unless you have a history of being a successful handicapper. Then you can use my in put as filters for your methods. But considering about 98% of the public lose overall betting on sports I would strongly suggest the 2% number and then your wagers rise and fall depending on your bankroll.
Many gamblers like to press when they are winning. Many press when their losing. Many go through emotional ups and downs with their gambling. You need to put all of this aside….these are the marks of people that are not successful gamblers. Betting on sports is a methodical routine that requires iron clad discipline.
The last thing I am going to share with you today is that if you have ever seen the movie with James Caan “the gambler” you should watch it. Its about as accurate depiction of a compulsive gambler that you will ever see in the movies and its a great movie. But the overall theme which the lead character admits is most gamblers have an innate desire to lose…its a self destructive part of their personality. To be successful you have to deal with that aspect of your personality. Those of us that are drawn to gambling tend to have that in the dark deep recesses of ourselves. Successful gamblers recognize this and deal with it. Playing poker in Vegas for the last twelve years reinforces the truth of the above for me. I see people with substantial skills blow off their money because they have not figured it out.
So the good part of the method of betting I am suggesting is it takes the guesswork out of how much to wager and it also requires you to have discipline. Its tempting after a 0-5 run to press it up. Thats human nature. But you have to get “human nature” under control to have a chance. Back when I started this website over twelve years ago I wrote a section called “required reading”. Its on the top and everyone should read it.
Now let me mention. I consider myself an expert on human nature. I was a trial attorney for over 30 years in addition to being around gamblers full time for the last twelve years. I am available for coaching free of charge if you want advice or need a bit of help putting things into perspective. Just drop me an email and we can either communicate that way or via skype.
So on to the NFL:
My hilton picks this week
Let me mention this week nothing was clear cut. There was no one game that stood out. I cannot remember a week like this. I have started out losing with Tenn +3 so need a 3-1 day to have a winning weekend in the nfl in the hilton contest.
The hilton top 5 this week
Last week they went 3-2 and this season 28-21-1
Green Bay 55
St Louis 53
Reverse Line Moves
For subscribers I will be sending out plays 1 to 10 min before game times.
College hoops has just started in addition we still have much of the NFL, College football, NHL and NBA to go. To sign up for plays sent out through my private twitter feed just hit the paypal button on the top right and then follow @rick_sports. Be sure and send me your twitter handle so I can then add you to the private feed.
Good Luck Today
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