One game I took in the hilton contest has had quite a move.
Betting is 79% on Arizona and the line has moved contrary to the betting from -5.5 to -3.5-105. Its hard to imagine the books moving the line so much with almost 80% of the betting on St. Louis. Variables strongly favor st. Louis. but this much of a move off the opener makes it too late to get on board st louis for me. So I am standing aside on the game today except for it being one of my Hilton picks. Three or four years ago the line would of opened at -5.5 and you would be wondering if you should be waiting to get +7.5! Things really have changed in the NFL. The rule used to be if you like the dog wait until game time…not anymore.
Saturday We had a good day for plays going 2-0. We had a college hoop total that won easily and also Toronto in the NHL +166 that was an easy 4-1 win! So a +2.66 unit day for plays.
Setups were not that fortunate going 0-2-1. I have been asked about the setups and what they represent. First they are not plays. And I do not bet them. They are situations I see something in the game that shades me to that side of the game. When I say shade I mean shade! If you are a successful handicapper then I suggest you incorporate these setups into your routine. If not then ignore them. If they were positive EV alone they would be plays. Again I do not bet these but feel they have some benefit if your doing your own handicapping.
The plays I put out are carefully selected as what I consider the best of the best. As you can see only two plays yesterday out of all of those games. On some days we have 5 to 8 plays and some none. I never stretch for plays as you know if you have been following me for the last twelve years.And if any of you have played poker with me you know my nature is a very very solid player who takes advantage of the loose non thinking players in the game!
If you are on the fence for these plays I suggest you give them a try. Just hit the paypal button on the upper right and pick the subscription of your choice. My plays will be sent out via a private twitter feed directly to your cell phone 1 to 10 min before game times. It does not get any better then that. In addition I am available throughout the day for opinions on any game of your choosing.
Well its NFL day today and after a 4-1 week in the Hilton picks I am getting up for today. My NFL picks for the Hilton contest this week are:
St Louis +5.5
The lines have moved a bit since I put the plays in. Phil is down to +7.5, Cleveland up to +10, St louis down to +4.5, Minn is now +1.5 and Buffalo is -3 to -3.5.
Hilton top 5
Hilton Bottom 5
I am on the other side of the top 2 picks of the day for the Hilton contest! Will be interesting to see who wins out.
Betting % for today
For subscribers I will be sending out plays 1 to 10 min before game time.
Good Luck Today
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