One game left tonight in the NFL
Betting is 78% on the road favorite New England and the line has moved with the betting from -3.5 to -4.5. Its -5 at a few books. My variables are about as strong as they can be on Houston tonight. However models point strongly in the other direction. Usually I would consider forgetting the models and going with Houston but the models this season have kept me away from some pretty bad situations. So I am going to pass on tonights game. Its hard to pass up Houston but the models point to an easy win by New England tonight. It will be interesting to see which one is right.
Good luck whichever side you choose. I will just be watching the game!
Saturday was one of the busiest days I can remember for awhile. And when the smoked cleared the result was -2.30 units plus the vig:(
College hoops went 1-1 on Sides and 0-4 on totals. None of the totals were particularly close however the loser on the sides could of gone either way at the end. The NBA went 1-0. The NHL went 1-1 with the winner being a 1.70 unit dog. They won 4-1. The big let down was the totals but they were due for a falling back to earth.
We are having a very respectable season to date in all sports.
NFL down 2 units at 7-9 setups however are 14-7!
College Hoops are 42-34 for plays and 2-2 for setups
NBA is 4-3 for plays Setups are 9-7
NHL is +7.02 units for the season
College football has been the letdown this season going 9-11-1 in season plays Setups 16-20-2
There you have it. We are solidly in the plus column and I have no reason to expect things to change. Things to notice so far are that NBA and NHL have been solid. The new data I have been able to get my hands on as a result of turning this into a subscriber base has paid off. There are so many different subtleties in handicapping that you really need a sophisticated data set along with sophisticated software to discern were the edges might be. The subscription base has allowed me to spend the money to give a more nuanced approach to my handicapping and it has paid off so far in the results.
In addition the good news is I anticipate this to carry over into baseball as well. So expect a solid baseball season in 2016.
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Ok on to the NFL:
My hilton picks this week:(in the order I liked them at the time)
This week was the toughest yet. I threw in detroit only because the line was -3 detroit and I could get them even. But I still felt Detroit was the right side anyway. Usually I pass on these games but there really wasnt much to choose from so I threw it in.
Hilton top 5
Baltimore (line was only +6.5)
Now historically you want to favor fading the top 5 and being on the botton 5. At least using these as filters to your own handicapping. This season however the top 5 has been 36-28-1. This coincides with the big public favorites coming in much more then usual. It used to be you could count on a favorite that had 80% of the betting to somehow lose against the spread. This season however there have been quite a few last second saves giving the favorite the cover. I hope this season is an anomaly:) Being a contrarian in my handicapping its amazing I am at 31-29 in my handicapping picks. Especially after the dismal start I got off to the first three weeks.
% numbers for today
New England 81
Green Bay 75
San Fran 64
San Diego 52
New orleans 50
Notice how the top 5 are all high % numbers and the bottom 5 are low numbers. The take away is that most of the handicappers in the Hilton contest bet very similar to the way the public bets. And the top 5 shows pretty much how the public is doing this season. This is most likely the best season they have had in a long long time.
Thats it for this morning. Subscribers I have sent out an NFL play for today already and further plays will be sent out 1 to 10 min before game times today.
Good Luck To everyone today!
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