One game left tonight in the NFL

New England

Betting is 78% on the road favorite New England and the line has moved with the betting from -3.5 to -4.5. Its -5 at a few books. My variables are about as strong as they can be on Houston tonight. However models point strongly in the other direction. Usually I would consider forgetting the models and going with Houston but the models this season have kept me away from some pretty bad situations. So I am going to pass on tonights game. Its hard to pass up Houston but the models point to an easy win by New England tonight. It will be interesting to see which one is right.

Good luck whichever side you choose. I will just be watching the game!

Saturday was one of the busiest days I can remember for awhile. And when the smoked cleared the result was -2.30 units plus the vig:(

College hoops went 1-1 on Sides and 0-4 on totals. None of the totals were particularly close however the loser on the sides could of gone either way at the end. The NBA went 1-0. The NHL went 1-1 with the winner being a 1.70 unit dog. They won 4-1. The big let down was the totals but they were due for a falling back to earth.

We are having a very respectable season to date in all sports.

NFL down 2 units at 7-9 setups however are 14-7!
College Hoops are 42-34 for plays and 2-2 for setups
NBA is 4-3 for plays Setups are 9-7
NHL is +7.02 units for the season
College football has been the letdown this season going 9-11-1 in season plays Setups 16-20-2

There you have it. We are solidly in the plus column and I have no reason to expect things to change. Things to notice so far are that NBA and NHL have been solid. The new data I have been able to get my hands on as a result of turning this into a subscriber base has paid off. There are so many different subtleties in handicapping that you really need a sophisticated data set along with sophisticated software to discern were the edges might be. The subscription base has allowed me to spend the money to give a more nuanced approach to my handicapping and it has paid off so far in the results.

In addition the good news is I anticipate this to carry over into baseball as well. So expect a solid baseball season in 2016.

You can get on board for a measly 49.00 a month. Its month to month so you can pick and choose the months you want to sign on for. This is substantially less then other services that do not produce results but still charge thousands for 1 sports for 1 season. This service is as good or not better then anything out there. In addition I am 100% transparent. I post my results each day for the previous day and update my season to date records each day also.

If your a subscriber you get all plays sent to you via my private twitter feed. You can then go to your twitter settings and have the plays sent where ever you like. Most have them sent directly to their cell instant messaging system.

As a subscriber you get 1. My hilton NFL picks as soon as I decide who I am going to include for the week 2. all plays and setups 3 access to me through out the day for opinions on games or any topic for that matter. I have been doing this for over 12 years now on this same website the only difference now is I am full time as opposed to it just being a hobby. I decided the grind of 60 hours a week playing mid limit poker was a waste of time. I will not get into the reason but if you have been following me for awhile you have some insights into that.

To sign on all you need do is hit the paypal button on the upper right and pick the subscription of your choosing. Let me mention if your a subscriber to the sports plays its only 17 a month more for stocks. This is a steal. Again other services fall into the neighborhood of 500 to 1500 a year for stocks. If you have any interest at all or trade a bit you should give it a try. I keep my closed trade records for all to see

I update that as trades are closed.

Ok on to the NFL:

My hilton picks this week:(in the order I liked them at the time)

Miami +1
Cinci -2.5
Phil +1
Cleveland -1.5
Detroit Even

This week was the toughest yet. I threw in detroit only because the line was -3 detroit and I could get them even. But I still felt Detroit was the right side anyway. Usually I pass on these games but there really wasnt much to choose from so I threw it in.

Hilton top 5
New england
Detroit(of course)

Bottom 5
Baltimore (line was only +6.5)
st louis

Now historically you want to favor fading the top 5 and being on the botton 5. At least using these as filters to your own handicapping. This season however the top 5 has been 36-28-1. This coincides with the big public favorites coming in much more then usual. It used to be you could count on a favorite that had 80% of the betting to somehow lose against the spread. This season however there have been quite a few last second saves giving the favorite the cover. I hope this season is an anomaly:) Being a contrarian in my handicapping its amazing I am at 31-29 in my handicapping picks. Especially after the dismal start I got off to the first three weeks.

% numbers for today

New England 81
Seattle 76
Green Bay 75
Detroit 73
Buffalo 66
San Fran 64
Bears 61
Denver 59
Jets 59
Carolina 58
Cinci 56
Indy 55
San Diego 52
New orleans 50

Notice how the top 5 are all high % numbers and the bottom 5 are low numbers. The take away is that most of the handicappers in the Hilton contest bet very similar to the way the public bets. And the top 5 shows pretty much how the public is doing this season. This is most likely the best season they have had in a long long time.

Thats it for this morning. Subscribers I have sent out an NFL play for today already and further plays will be sent out 1 to 10 min before game times today.

Good Luck To everyone today!

twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickjswingtrade
Private Twitter: Rickjswings ( send me an email for a 2week free trial)
Private Twitter: Rick_sports

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