Nothing in college hoops Sat. Lines are getting much tougher now that conference play has started. And also this morning nothing much stands out.
In the nba one total:
Sac O 206.5 (for tracking purposes only)
Too early for anything else.
A few observations. For those that are following the new rev line move subset (rlm plays)
you probably noticed in particular the tcu game moved from 72 to 68 percent in the last minute before the game. There is no way possible for a 4% move in about a minute for that high a volume game. I noticed this also in baseball last year. One of the problems with sportsinsights is they have a noticeable lag in public percentages that seems in some instances to get caught up just before the game. So you have to build in a bit of a cushion to account for this. I could of picked 65% rather then 70% but that is my built in cushion. It happens often enough that you need to be aware of it.
Also my tracking of these is not going to be easy since there are a number of variables that I am using. So take a look at what I have done on my results side and see if that makes sense. Also I am going to be betting these plays. I gave it some thought and think these may turn out to be the strongest of what I have been doing so far for a variety of reasons.
I will put these out on twitter as RLM plays so you can differentiate between them and my regular plays. If you want to see what the variables are for each play you will need to take a look at my post on the blog since I wont have time to tweet that from my ipad.
Also expect them around 10 to 15 min before game time. With these types of plays that are so contingent on public betting and line moves there is no other way to do it.
As far as the nba…it looks promising and I am going to make a decision at the all star break whether to start betting them. If I do I will tweet these also. My rule is if I dont bet them I dont put them out on tweeter.
In the nfl should be at least 1 play today.
Are there any noticeable difference in the public percentags on SBRodds.com, better or worse Rick?
thanks for taking the time to do this rick. looking forward to see if these become truly high percentage plays.