Another good day in Baseball Saturday. Our play on Pitt won 6-4. Also both our tracking plays won..with the White Sox and KC winning.
Today unlike the last few days not much stands out early. I will update if anything becomes clear today.
“Are you considering public betting for any of these tracking plays?”
No…..I do not look at public betting when handicapping home favorites and road dogs. Only the home dogs.
“Congrats rickj looks like friday will be nice to you. Was wondering what exactly made Pitt +154 a play right off the bat”
Sometimes but not often the variables I consider makes a game stand out….ie everything I look at strongly favors the side. This doesn’t happen very often with the home dogs since usually you have to wait to see what the public will do the remainder of the day. But on Friday it was clear cut in the morning that the public was pounding Boston.
One more comment:
I’m a big supporter of you, your picks and your website. You’ve given me god knows how many winning picks over the last 4 years. I’ve started following your baseball picks this year, and I certainly understand the ways of the world in terms of variance, downswings, etc. That’s part of the game.
However I did have one suggestion/thought. You’ve always been smart to educate your followers on the expectations of gambling. I think in MLB there is a totally different mindset than betting football or basketball and perhaps it wouldn’t hurt to share it with your audience.
To me, MLB is so much more mentally challenging because you are always betting underdogs, and fading good pitchers. Naturally this means there will be losing plays, and quite a few of them. In other sports, where you need to hit 55-58% of your picks just to turn a profit, in MLB with your plays its different. You can actually be below .500 and still return a profit. But for most players, that is a tough concept to deal with. Seeing losses pile up day after day would make a lot of people start to question the method. I believe in betting underdogs in all sports, because that’s where most of the value lies.
Anyway, just thought I’d share that with you. Keep up the great work.”
I agree with most of what you say. Baseball betting is more then likely more volatile then other betting and you have to have a strong stomach sometimes to weather the downswings. Very similar to limit poker:)