4:00 Update
One more game today in the NBA:
San Antonio
Oklahoma City
Betting is 56% on the road favorite with the line moving from -1 to -2. Models and variables are neutral. And the public betting is pretty subdued in the game. As I look at the game it’s a pure coin flip for me. I am passing
Also, I just received an email that I think is instructive:
“Hi Rick
I just got one of your tweets. Why are the significance of public numbers in the NBA playoffs different than the regular season?
Secondly with baseball favorites are you wagering to win either a half or full unit or is that what you’re risking?
Thanks”
My response:
“The setups are different in the playoffs. That means the public % numbers have different thresholds in addition to the other variables to consider. It’s similar to college hoops where you have essentially 3 or 4 seasons within a season with the considerations different in each season.
If it’s a 1 unit play on the favorite I am betting to win 1 unit. If it’s the dog I am laying 1 unit. Same is true for 1/2 unit plays. You can do it any way you want but that is how I have always approached it.”
If after reading this anyone has any questions please do not hesitate to let me know. A nice win on the under 204 after a 63 pt 1st quarter. Glad to see us get a break:)
See you tomorrow
Rick
12:00 Update
First NBA game starts in about 30 min with:
Cleveland
Atlanta
Betting is 76 % on the road favorite with the line moving from -5.5 to -5. So here we have a very high public number on the road favorite with a pretty reverse line move. Models are neutral. Variables are neutral on the game. But the 76% is a high number and a reverse line move with it would steer me away from Cleveland. I am passing on the game. I need much more to take Atlanta!
Saturday we had another busy day with 2 one unit plays in MLB, two 1/2 unit plays, and 2 Setups.
We went 1-1 on our 1 unit plays winning with the Yankees +136 8-2 and losing with Toronto +146 2-6. Our 1/2 unit plays went 0-2 losing with Cleveland -102 0-7 and Portland Under 213.5 120-108. Our bet or pass setups went 0-2 losing with Colorado +159 1-2 in 13 innings and losing with Washington +131 5-8.
So in baseball, we lost .14 units and in the NBA -.55 units.
Today looking over the games it’s shaping up to be another busy day at least 2 hours before game times. I received a very good response from my post yesterday with most of the emails thanking me for my honesty and transparency. In addition showing an appreciation of telling it the way things actually are instead of promising the moon as most services do.
For those new to this site it probably comes as a surprise that a handicapper that charges a modest monthly subscription would be so honest but for those that have been following me the last 13 years know it’s simply the way I do business.
I would rather have potential subscribers read the must read portion of the site and decide the service is not for them then have subscribers that have unrealistic expectations. If this theoretically would mean I wold have no subscribers then so be it. I am not going to compromise my principles by misleading or reporting false results. But you can take a look at my results over the past 13 years and almost everything is here on the site in plain view.
As I have said my goal is to be profitable in every sport. It’s not a goal I have obtained yet, however, the NBA and NHL that in the past have been breakeven sports are now very good ROI sports. College hoops even with a dramatic drawdown the last month of the season was a very good performer. Baseball to date is off 1.605 units so it’s very early to be predicting either way. Typically baseball has been my worst sport but the adjustments I made in the NBA and NHL were also made in MLB. So I am very optimistic….so optimistic that I stand to refund quite a bit of money if I am negative in MLB come august 31st! We will see:)
Back to work for me. If anyone has any question or improvements I can make to the site I always welcome constructive criticism. In addition, thanks to everyone that did me a favor and shared, posted, liked what I had to say yesterday. It showed up in the increased activity on the site. I appreciate it and if it’s not too much trouble if you enjoy reading this site please keep it up!
Good Luck Today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
