The game I am considering as a play today is Tenn +7. The only problem for me is that to get +7 in most spots you need to lay more then -110. If it changes where that is widely available I will put it out as a play. Right now the best I can do is +7-111 and I will not bet it unless it comes down to -110…my line in the sand:)
One thing that does worry me is the MGM line is +6.5 even. They are are pretty good barometer of what the public is doing as they move their lines with the public action. In any event I will monitor things until game time. But unless +7 -110 becomes widely available I will not be putting it out as a play.
I was wondering if you could discuss what went into the Bears-Seahawks line today (right now my local guy has it at -3). Seattle is a terrible team on the road, who had to fly 10,000+ miles in the last 8 days. Chicago is a team that plays well at home and played well last week. I understand these are sentiments the public uses (which is why the public loses), so I was hoping you’d be able to explain why the line is where it is more analytically. Thanks for all you do!”
Let me start out by saying everything I look at points to Seattle today…at +3.5 I was considering it as a play. At +3 most likely not. My models show they game to be around a pick. In addition other variables I look at points to Seattle today.
In addition the bears have injury considerations with Hester out and Tillman Questionable. Briggs and Forte are injured but probable.
I do not think you can make the conclusion that Seattle is a terrible road team…the sample size is just too small in the NFL to draw those conclusions. Its not like the NBA where they play a lot of games.
Finally the travel is certainly a consideration that would lead towards the Bears…but that would be as far as I can see the only consideration. With 64% of the public on the Bears and the line moving from -4.5 to -3+100 thats a huge sharp move that you should respect.
Not much looks good for a play…however there is a 10:00 game that is close and I will update if it turns into a play.
Some big moves today will be interesting to see how they come out.
An interesting game is the Detroit game. The line opened at -3.5 and has moved to -7! You would think Luck might be out for Indy….but no injuries. Also the public is on Detroit only 38%. That is a huge Reverse line Move. I am liking my -5 in the Hilton contest a lot now:)
Green Bay 56%
San Fran 76%
New Eng 81%
Top 5 Hilton Consensus Picks:
The above should be considered as a contrarian in your handicapping!