Houston
Tenn

The game I am considering as a play today is Tenn +7. The only problem for me is that to get +7 in most spots you need to lay more then -110. If it changes where that is widely available I will put it out as a play. Right now the best I can do is +7-111 and I will not bet it unless it comes down to -110…my line in the sand:)

One thing that does worry me is the MGM line is +6.5 even. They are are pretty good barometer of what the public is doing as they move their lines with the public action. In any event I will monitor things until game time. But unless +7 -110 becomes widely available I will not be putting it out as a play.

Nfl Comment:

“Hi RickJ,
I was wondering if you could discuss what went into the Bears-Seahawks line today (right now my local guy has it at -3). Seattle is a terrible team on the road, who had to fly 10,000+ miles in the last 8 days. Chicago is a team that plays well at home and played well last week. I understand these are sentiments the public uses (which is why the public loses), so I was hoping you’d be able to explain why the line is where it is more analytically. Thanks for all you do!”

Let me start out by saying everything I look at points to Seattle today…at +3.5 I was considering it as a play. At +3 most likely not. My models show they game to be around a pick. In addition other variables I look at points to Seattle today.

In addition the bears have injury considerations with Hester out and Tillman Questionable. Briggs and Forte are injured but probable.

I do not think you can make the conclusion that Seattle is a terrible road team…the sample size is just too small in the NFL to draw those conclusions. Its not like the NBA where they play a lot of games.

Finally the travel is certainly a consideration that would lead towards the Bears…but that would be as far as I can see the only consideration. With 64% of the public on the Bears and the line moving from -4.5 to -3+100 thats a huge sharp move that you should respect.

Rick

Not much looks good for a play…however there is a 10:00 game that is close and I will update if it turns into a play.

Some big moves today will be interesting to see how they come out.

An interesting game is the Detroit game. The line opened at -3.5 and has moved to -7! You would think Luck might be out for Indy….but no injuries. Also the public is on Detroit only 38%. That is a huge Reverse line Move. I am liking my -5 in the Hilton contest a lot now:)

Public Sentiment:

Bears 64%
Green Bay 56%
San Fran 76%
Jets 62%
Carolina 77%
Indy 61%
Jacksonville 57%
New Eng 81%
Houston 83%
Denver 54%
Balt 59%
Cleveland 56%
Cinci 75%
Phil 50%

Top 5 Hilton Consensus Picks:

Cinci 210-79
Houston 193-65
Minn 172-45
Jets 151-54
Carolina 144-65

The above should be considered as a contrarian in your handicapping!

RickJ
Rickjshandicappingpicks.com
Twitter: rickjsportplays
Twitter: rickkjswingtrade

Leave a Comment

Contact Us

We're not around right now. But you can send us an email and we'll get back to you, asap.

Not readable? Change text. captcha txt
Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!
Sign up now for our daily newsletter. Includes handicapping tips

We are now +26.77 Units in MLB!!!

RickJ's Handicapping PicksĀ  The latest in positive EV handicapping Techniques
Sign up now for our daily newsletter with handicapping tipsĀ 
Close
Rickj's Handicapping Picks
Assign a menu in the Left Menu options.
Assign a menu in the Right Menu options.