It’s back to the basics handicapping sports. Back when I was playing poker full time and went through an extended run to the downside, at some point I would drop down to low limit hold-em for a few weeks.
The good thing about hold-em is it requires you to think. You only have 2 cards and your opponents only have 2 cards. So drawing inferences is what gets you to be a winning player.
So, for the next few months its going to be nuts and bolts basics for handicapping. The techniques that have been successful year in and year out.
The new techniques I have introduced into my handicapping will be followed but I am putting them aside right now for the time being.
Yesterday we had 3 plays and went 2-1. We had a 1 unit play on Michigan Under 145 that landed on 144. We also had two half unit plays. Winning in the NBA with Utah +4 and losing in the NFL with NO Under 47.
I received quite a few emails regarding the email and post I sent out yesterday.
There seems to be a little uncertainty regarding what I plan to do with subscribers. So let me try to clarify it now:
1. All current subscribers are now paid up in full until the first day of MLB. That means that whatever time left you have left on your monthly subscription is the cost up until MLB begins.
I had talked about suspending accounts and starting them up at the beginning of MLB but that would be a nightmare to administer. Paypal does not have a very sophisticated system that way.
2. If your a current subscriber and would rather have a refund for the pro rata amount left on your subscription, just email me and I will send it to you instantly. Your subscription will end when I send the refund.
3. If your a yearly subscriber I will extend the balance of your yearly subscription into MLB. Otherwise, yearly subscribers would be taking too much the worst of it.
That pretty much is it. Rather simple but I want to make sure there are no misunderstandings. So if anyone is in the least bit uncertain you can contact me via email at firstname.lastname@example.org
Also, let me share a few emails I received:
Just wanted to say thanks for the honorable gesture of freezing the subscriptions in the midst of the downswing. Shows a lot of character, here’s to turning things around! I’m with you all the way.”
First of all a belated Happy New Year.
Secondly, I don’t think it was necessary for you to suspend payments for your service. Even though we have been in a bad downswing, between your daily investment update and the invaluable handicapping advice you provide your service provides value.
When someone provides advice there’s no guarantee that it’s going to come to fruition. Gambling is certainly no different and gambling losses can oftentimes be especially cruel. I have a financial advisor. Most of his advice is good, but I never get a refund for “bad” advice and his bad advice is very costly.
If you’re going to write a sports update tomorrow it might not be a bad idea to suggest to your subscribers to wager less during a downswing rather than more. About halfway through the college totals i decreased my bet size by one half and I’ve eliminating one unit wager sizes. I’m not sports betting to supplement my income, this is recreation for me, the money I win or lose is insignificant, but I don’t like losing and this seems to work best for me.
Keep up the good work and hang in there.”
And a question about the 1/2 unit new category:
“Rick, with the new 1/2 unit plays you stated their would be more variance. They have been dismal since you started putting them out. You have said these backtested well. Does it make sense to abandon them at what could be the end of a long downswing? What are your thoughts with these?”
“I do not view it that way. When things do not work out the way you anticipate in sports betting its best to figure out why before continuing with a method. Certainly, it could be variance, but i usually tend to stay on the conservative side.
The problem with the approach that things are due to turn is that each event is independent of each other. Sort of like flipping a coin. You happen to hit a run of ten tails the odds are still 50 50 on the next coin flip. And at some point, you have to consider whether the coin flip is on the level:)”
This gives you an idea of the various response I have been getting.
In addition, I plan on going back to posting daily with results and comments. So if you have any comments or questions you would like to share feel free to send them to me.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks