Superbowl, NE/Rams Roadmap

Superbowl Sunday:

Public % 72%NE 28% Rams: No Edge +

Models: Slight Edge Rams

Variables: No Edge

Let me start out by giving my typical caveat. Gamblers tend to not only think they have to have a wager on the superbowl, but they also tend to wager more then what is a typical wager for them.

Its sort of like when the World Series of Poker comes to town here in Vegas. Players that you could not talk into moving up from 8-16 to 15-30 Omaha 8 find themselves sitting in a fast moving 75-150 Omaha 8 game:) Its just human nature.

Now, first lets take a look at how the public sees the game. First, top on their minds is Brady and Belichick. How in the world are you going to beat those two in a big game? And less than a field goal? Time to back up the truck as the Rams should not even be in the Superbowl, and are only there because of the call costing New Orleans the game.

Now lets think about it from a more sober perspective. Remember, and never forget, the line makers are the masters at making the lines. Especially in the NFL. When they put the line out as a pick, who did they think the public was going to pound, NE of course. And yet, a pick? So right off the bat that is a red flag that perhaps the public may be a bit delusional in their thinking here. 

The bookmakers have had to move the line 2 pts as of this morning to -2 because of the heavy action on NE.

Now lets look at it from another angle. What is your gut telling you right now. NE of course, as that is exactly what mine is telling me:)  I am thinking from the gut how in the world can you even take the Rams in this spot.

Well, lets look at the numbers.

The models all point to NE being overvalued at -2. My models show the game at anywhere from a pick to Rams -1.5. But there are no key numbers so keep that in mind. The public is 72% on NE as of this morning. That is a pretty high number for the Superbowl. More importantly it means to me that betting on NE is a non starter. 

As far as variables, forget it. One thing about the NFL is that the sample size is small to begin with. When you just consider the Superbowl there really is no sample to evaluate. I have seen a statistic whenever you get a 2 pt move in the Superbowl toward the favorite the favorite wins and covers around 80% of the time. However, that is a sample size of less than 10 game !!! In other words meaningless.

So I am passing today. There is nothing here that I see that has a postive EV Edge unless you want to consider the rams on the money line. And even then its far from a play with my strict requirements.

I know its a tough assignment, but sit back and enjoy the game with no money on it:)

That is what I will be doing.

If the numbers change I will update.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

rickjshandicappingpicks.com

Skype: riccja