Saturday we had 6 plays all in college hoops and went 4-2.
Winners were Portland +18.5 63-73, Stanford +2.5 81-75, Indiana St +6.5 60-65 and Pitt +16 64-72. We lost with Santa Clara +21.5 55-90 and Conn +13.5 68-72.
Today I have sent out no plays so far.
Today is Superbowl Sunday! I had a full write up a few days ago (feb 3rd) and I suggest you go back and read it over for my thoughts.
I just got finished looking at both the offshore and vegas lines. Amazingly I can find no lines that have moved off of 3. Now we still have 8 hours to go before game time but this may well be what you are looking at for the remainder of pre-game odds.
The best line I could find if you like NE is on Pinnacle at -3+102. If you like the dog Bovada will let you take Atlanta +3 even. If you have an account on both books than you can place a no risk middle. So for every thousand you bet 50% of the time you will make $20.00 and the other half of the time you will break even. So an expectancy of 10.00 for every thousand you wager.
I would not run out and get accounts on both sites just to get this middle down:)
I have looked over everything I look at trying to find a clue and there is just none there I can see. But, there is one clue that is so minor I hesitate to mention it as I know sports bettors could use this as an excuse to bet the game. So with that caveat, the clue is Bovada’s line compared to Pinnacle.
As most of you know I look at the various books for clues as to where the “sharps” and “public” is positioning themselves on the game. Pinnacle is the leader for “sharp books” while Bovada is one of the leaders for ” Public” books.
Knowing this gives you additional confirmation in interpreting the action on a game that supplements the % numbers. So, we have 65% on NE with the Pinnacle line staying steady opening at -3+102 and remarkably is still at -3+102. Sometimes I also look at Chris and they opened at -3 and is now -3-105.
Looking at Bovada at -3-120 it is clear that the public favors New England.
Myself I rarely bet with the public. As I sit here this morning I can only think of one subset of games that I completely abandon public betting. Typically I am fading the public or not betting the game.
So here for me, it would be Atlanta or pass. And I am passing. I see no edge in the game at least the way I handicap games.
If you cannot control your compulsion to have a bet on the game then my suggestion from a few days ago still holds true. Wait it out and either lay -2.5 or take +3.5. Or if you’re a poker player and happen to be at the tables today a no juice bet.
Some housekeeping items to take care of. If you’re on the football special the last day of the subscription period is today. To continue on with the plays please resubscribe via PayPal as today will be the last day of the plays via the lump sum subscription that some of you subscribed to.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks