Swing traders are getting massacred in this market!

6:00 Update

An interesting game coming up tonight in the NBA

Atlanta

Golden State

Betting is 72% on Golden State with the line moving from -9 to -5.5. The game sets up as a play for me tonight on Atlanta however the circumstances tonight also point to a pretty high % situation on Golden State. Curry is out tonight for Golden State and this has resulted in the 3.5 pt move in the line. Typically when a star player is out the first game that the team plays without him tends to be a good sport to take the injured team. The players tend to focus and play a stronger game to compensate for the loss of the star player and additionally the books tend to adjust the line too much knowing that the betting is going to come in on Atlanta. So this means that I am passing on the game. However should be interesting to see how it comes out!

5:00 Update

At 6:00 another top 25 matchup:

#12 Indiana

#16 Iowa

Betting is 55% on the Home Fav Iowa with the line moving with the betting from -4 to -5.  Models and Variables are neutral on the game and the public betting is neutral also. This game is as close to a toss-up as you can come up with. A clear cut pass for me.

4:00 Update

A top 25 matchup at 5:00

#19 Baylor

#6 Oklahoma

Betting is 49% on the Home Fav Oklahoma with the line staying steady at -7.5.  Models are neutral and variables slightly favor Oklahoma in this game. Also as you know when a favorite has less then 50% of the betting on them that is a red flag for me to consider the favorite if I am going to be betting the game. In this instance however there is nothing compeling to lead me to betting the game. So this game is a pass for me.

8:25 Update

I want to get a jump on tonight as I have a busy afternoon with family related matters. Who said I did not have my priorities straight:)

Monday we went 0-1 on our plays losing with Montreal in the NHL. Our setup in the NBA total on the clippers Under was an easy winner. These totals in the NBA are looking very solid to me. There are not very many but the setups have produced easy covers. I am right on the verge of adding to our play arsenal.

We are starting a new month and it is always a good idea to take a look at home we did for the previous month:

College Hoops:

February 29-22-1 58.33%

Season 112-80 -3 58.73%

NHL:

February

Away Dog
7-8 +0.65
Home Fav
0-1 -1.10

Season +12.96

NBA:

February
Away Dog
4-3

Regular Season 15-14-1

One thing that I like about the results aside from the positive month is that our drawdowns have virtually none since I have begun this subscription service. As I have said many times I am now able to obtain data that was just too expensive to justify on a free site and also spend more time with developing the plays and setups.

This has shown up in the lack of drawdown and also in the NHL. Where the NHL has been breakeven to slightly positive in the past it is now a solid performer. I expect the same from Baseball this season as I have incorporated the same routines into baseball.

Also now that its the first of the month I am going to start a goggle sheet that will carry all plays and setups in detail by date showing the win and loss record along with the score of the game. As I said this Idea was not mine but a subscriber’s and although I do not take all suggestions this one is a very good one despite the bit of extra work it will take.

Transparency is one of the things that separates me from almost every other service along with producing winning plays of course:)

I am always open to suggestions. I am very busy these days between the markets and handicapping so easy for me to miss improvements. In addition, I do not think of anyone that is a subscriber as a customer. Far from it. I think of this as a membership or partnership where everyone that is a member now can take advantage of the time, money, and energy I put into handicapping every day. We are in this together as every play I put out I am on them also.

For someone to get into handicapping as I have would take an enormous amount of time and energy let alone the learning curve involved. Becoming a member of our group lets you be part of some of the best handicapping methods around.

Hope to see you join us!!!

Rick

If you are a swing trader looking at a 3 or 4-day horizon your getting whipsawed several times a week. It’s almost impossible in this schizophrenic environment to make any money with that technique.

It won’t last all year but until we get a market that stabilizes and produces even short term trends it’s going to be very difficult. I have friends that solely do swing trading complaining about the markets!

I had a short trade in spy which I exited on the drop Monday. Now the market is looking at a 3/4% gap up 45 min before the open.

I think with this gap up this morning the most likely direction is higher for today and for a few days now. I know the market is overbought right now but markets can stay overbought for a long long time. So I may be looking at a few swing trade longs today. I won’t be sticking in them very long however as overbought as the market is.

My Nasdaq SP500 weekly indicator is getting very close to triggering long now and if it continues its likely to trigger this week. In addition, we are right at the 50 day MA. We were above it for two days and yesterday saw us move just a bit below it. It appears this is where the battleground is going to be for awhile.  202.70 is where the 200 day MA is, about 5% of where we are now.

So again I will be looking for some very short term long trades in only the very best setups. If I do not get them no worries.

Good Luck Trading today