Sunday we went 0-3 in plays and ended up the month on a bit of a downswing. We still finished with a solid month. Today is going to be a light schedule and since I am still working on website issues I am going to make this very short.
Good Luck Tonight and for subscribers will update shortly before 4:00 to give you an idea what to look for in plays tonight.
The markets are very overbought right now and with all the Countries talking stimulus now(except the U.S.) there has been a temporary bounce. Now your most likely wondering about test 2. I said a week ago as to the bounce coming up that Test 1 was how the market responded to the Fed meeting and 2. How the market responds to bad new.
Today at 11 Fed Fischer speaks. I have a hunch your going to get your first idea that the Fed has not turned dovish overnight. With the markets down almost 3/4 % and hour before the open this Monday has the makings of a very ugly day. But if Fischer says more rate hikes and the market goes up that would be passing Test 2.
Lets wait and see. Its always interesting to see how the markets respond to news. Its one of the biggest tells there is for predicting short term direction. I am long and short right now for short term trading. My portfolio has been sold and I am now tactically trading as opposed to portfolio trading. The market risk as I see it could not be any higher. Yes I know that from a contrarian standpoint that feelings of this nature are very bullish. However from about every logical standpoint I see this year as being a record breaking year similar to the first month of trading. Record to the downside. I do not see anything that is encouraging from a mid range point of view.
World Wide Turmoil, Stifling regulations, uncontrolled borders, increasing terrorist threats, antisemitism increasing at an alarming rate in many western countries, political racial and economic division here in the U.S.
These are all things that point to a global slowdown at the very least. They are all bad signs of increasing instability. In 6 months or so the tourism numbers world wide will catch up with the facts. World tourism as I see will come to a stand still.
I am really not a doomsayer however the facts are what they are. On the bright side there is a Resilience to the human spirit that usually at the very last moment steps in to save a virtually impossible situation.
So for investing its be very flexible and most of all keep your position sizing in line with your risk tolerance. If you do not follow this advice you will lose a lot of money. My strategy is short term mean reversion, Break Out and some Option Strategies until some of the above have diminished. Or at least until the Fed is back to a long term free money policy.
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