First bowl games :
Middle Tenn St
Betting is 61% on Western Mich with the line moving contrary to the betting from -3.5 to -3. Variables favor Middle Tn State and models favor W. Mich. This game is a pass for me.
Wednesday plays went 2-4. Our NBA Play on Phil lost College hoops Sides plays went 1-1 totals 1-2. There was a setup in the NBA on Sacramento and it was an easy winner.
Let me share a discussion with a subscriber from last night:
“Rick these 6ers can’t cover a spread, I know you keep trying and every time I follow it’s game over by the half”
“Let me mention about Phil and covering the spread. First our sample size is not very large to make any conclusions as to their ability to cover the spread. 2. when we get to 1000 games bet on Phil then perhaps we could draw some conclusions that the books have mispriced phil. But its always a dangerous assumption to make that the Bookmakers are making faulty lines (especially in the NBA)
Years ago when handicapping the NFL i used to hide the names of the teams before I started handicapping. Just went with the numbers and variables without the team names. The reason was I had a bias against certain teams who I did not think could cover. After I dealt with that bias It helped me quite a bit Its very normal to get the feeling that a team cannot cover. And your going to on occasion get your thinking positively reinforced But overall its a subjective emotion that is going to hurt you in the long run if your a successful handicapper.”
These are the types of things I enjoy discussing. After all we all are human and all let our human bias get involved in our decision making from time to time. Even Spock has a hard time of it as a Vulcan but he was half human:)
Its the human element that is going to sabotage you when you take on gambling as a profession. All of these conflicting emotions that come to play when gambling usually steer you in the wrong direction. I wrote a brief article on that when I started this web site and its as true today as it was then. Its in the required reading section on the top portion of this site. Although the less then 1000 plays is no longer applicable the gist of the article is. Take a look at it and digest it. If you take it as true and adjust your behavioral patterns accordingly you will be a step ahead of 99% of the humans that try to overcome the vig and beat the sports books.
The last 3 days has been like a shot of adrenal for me. Market gaps up and stays up. And then closes higher into the end of the day. Positive seasonality, Golden Cross, both have contributed to this. It happens almost every year and as I stated right now is the most positive seasonality you will get for the year. And it lasts until year end.
Right now the market is slightly higher and hour before the open. In addition the market is now firmly short term overbought. If this were normal seasonality I might be looking for a short swing trade. But generally you like the wind at your back when you make trades and seasonality right now is a firm headwind if your short.
I am long a portfolio of stocks with both swing trades and mean reversion trades. Overall this has been a successful year for me trading. While others have been getting devastated with the increased volatility I have weathered the storm with consistent and steady profits in my trading. Swing trades have overall been profitable but the best performer for this year has been the mean reversion trading. Mean reversion is the highest risk of the stragies I use but its been the steadiest in making profits this year. The portfolio I have on of 12 stocks has been the laggard. Typically these do well each year but this year they have been lagging everything else I trade. That of course can change but that will be the results for this year.
You can always check my closed trades in my google spreadsheets to see how I am doing. I do not post open trades as this is subscriber based. It would be fairly easy to mimic most of my open trades as many take time to develop. So it would not be fair to subscribers to reveal these.
Finally I had an interesting give and take with a subscriber regarding sports betting last night that I will share with you when I discuss handicapping later today. That is the advantage of having a subscription based product. You tend to get more serious handicappers who have similar goals so you do not have the distraction of the lurkers who wait and wait then pounce when your have a downswing with insulting comments. Nice to be free of the Mediterraneans for awhile. I have had to deal with them for over 12 years 🙂 Makes it much more pleasant having intelligent discourse rather then distructive comment made for their own entertainment.
In addition I have been getting emails from various Poker players I have met through out the years playing poker full time in Las Vegas. Not only do you have the locals but you have a steady group of non locals that visit vegas consistently from time to time and you get to know very well. They come from all walks of life and are from all parts of the World. You would be amazed at the friendships you make over the years.
But I have been getting a number of emails as to where am I. After all for over 12 years I was a steady fixture in the Bellagio and Venetian poker rooms playing various limits of poker from 100/200 limit holdem to 8/16 Omaha 8. I told them to watch on this site and I will explain the reasons I have essentially dropped out of the poker world. From 60 hours a week for 12 years to 0 hours a week. And who said it couldn’t be done. And as a hint money had nothing to do with it. Playing poker as well as being a trial attorney litigating complex medical negligence cases and complex products liability cases with a few murder trials thrown in as the lead trial attorney was never about money for me. It was all the game!!! Enough rambling this morning …I Will save it for later.
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