The Dog days of Baseball are upon us!

The Dog days of Baseball are upon us!

Friday we went 2-1 on our plays losing our 1 unit play with Cinn +190 1-8 and winning our two 1/2 unit plays on San Diego +120 4-1 and in the NBA Detroit Under 200 101-91. So overall a +.10 unit day. Sweet!

Also, let me get the transparency issue out of the way. Without exception, everyone that commented on my request has said there is no problem with the transparency on the site. Almost all have said I could not be much more transparent than I am. And most have said that my transparency is by far the most they have ever seen from a handicapper.

“Regarding your request for feedback, you are more than transparent enough. I’ve followed you for about 2 years. It’s quickly evident that you’re an open book. Plus, it is easy to go back and see how you’ve done from year to year and sport to sport. Additionally, you’ve taken the time to clear up any questions I’ve had.

Sure you could make some updates to your spreadsheets but that would be for pure marketing purposes only. They’re as transparent as you can be.”
“I don’t know how you can be any more transparent than you are.  Every day in your daily post you update the previous day’s plays with the results of each play including the actual play.  If that’s not transparency I need to go back to school. If someone’s unable to follow your results they probably shouldn’t be wagering sports to begin with.  They ought to play the slots or roulette.”
“Hey Rick, I personally can’t think of much,  if anything,  you could do to be any more transparent.  You have every playlisted on the spreadsheet and you update the units won/lost every day on the sheet and your main website.  I can’t really understand how someone would have a problem with how you do it unless they are finding you’re making mistakes in the record keeping or something of that nature.  But I’ve personally seen nothing like that so can’t see how that would be any kind of issue.  I think the way you are doing things is great.”

Which leads me back to my theme I touch upon from time to time….Human Nature! I have been a trial attorney trying complex cases, I have started a business from the ground up and sold it to a major chain, I am an instrument rated pilot, a certified scuba diver, a life master at bridge. And the one thing that mystifies me is Human Nature. The randomness and process toward self-sabotage  will always be a mystery to me. I understand the process better than most but it still perplexes me.  I could put out 90% winners and you would still have to deal with human nature:)

 

Enough said and I wish to put that subject to rest(transparency). One other question from a subscriber:

“At what point in the NBA or College hoops do you give up the half point to take lower vig?  If my choices are a team +8 -110 and +7.5 -105 I’m pretty sure the -105 is always better.  But what if it was -106 or -108?  would it still be worth it?  My rule is I will not give up the half point to save 1 or 2 cents in vig, 3 cents is a toss up, and I always do it to save 4 cents or more.  I can’t imagine I’ve been using too poor a strategy, but just want to make sure.”

My response:

Your rule sounds reasonable. As far as actual stats I have not done much of a study on the subject. My handicapping  does not take advantage of buying points. In addition, if you’re getting multiple outs your most likely not ever going to have the need for that. Saying that let me put together something on the subject that is intelligible. It’s difficult to answer as it involves key numbers and they are different for each sport. In addition, the value of a 1/2 pt or 1 pt is different for each sport.

But it’s something that I have research on and I will have to dig into my archives and see what I can come up with.

Finally onto the topic of this post. We are rapidly approaching the dog days of summer which is the middle of MLB. Baseball is a brutal sport with swings higher than any other sport. The NHL could be that way but the number of plays in the NHL is dramatically less than MLB. So plan accordingly. Most active nonsophisticated handicappers rarely make it through the dog days of summer. If you can maintain our discipline during this time then its a piece of cake the remaining months.

Also, let me say I am on track to have a winning season handicapping in all sports. It’s taken me a long time to get to this place. But with +10 units in the NHL and +4 units in the NBA which in the past typically have been break even sports is very encouraging. Doing this full time has paid off for me with very positive results so far. MLB will be the test and so far I am not disappointed with +3 units the first 3 weeks of the season. But we will see what the final score is the end of august:)

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

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