Next Bowl game up today
Betting is 50 50 on the game and the line has moved from -3.5 to -4. Models slightly favor Clemson. And variables again are absent completely on either side of the game. This is another today where it looks like a coin flip. Best to stay away from these coin flip games. Its tough enough when you have an edge!
By the way speaking of edges we are 2-0 so far today in college hoops. If you have been thinking about signing on just hit the paypal button and pick the subscription of your choice. I can say without a doubt its the best value for handicapping services out there. No big payment to put down, no ridiculous buying the pick per game, but only a small monthly subscription fee that covers ALL sports going on at the time. That would mean right now….College hoops, NFL, NBA , NHL and of course college football. All are included in the small monthly subscription.
In addition as if that were not enough I am available through out the day for opinions on games or any other questions you may have.
Hope to see you join us!
Thursday we went 3-3 on our plays. 2-1 in college hoops, 1-1 on bowl games and 0-1 in the NHL.
The first bowl game of the day starts in 15 min:
Betting is 53% on the Favorite with the line moving from -6.5-102 to -7-116. Most likely there is a 7.5 available as at most places you have to pay more then -110 to bet the favorite. My models show the game to be priced right. Variables are completely absent on the game for either side. This game is about as close to a toss up as I can see for covering the spread. I am passing on this game.
2015 has wound down with the market still in doubt as to whether it will close up or down for the year. Thats that type of year it has been. Extremely high volatility but in the end hovers a break even for the year.
For the most part traders despite the market at break even have taken a beating this year. Most traders do not consider variance or high volatility and when it comes their accounts are not prepared for it. The you combine that with Humans tendency to want to get even and disaster strikes.
If your going to trade or bet on sports for that matter you want to have a set of rules to follow that will keep you out of trouble. My rules this year served me well as despite a break even year I have had a good return this year.
Despite all the publicity surrounding whether the market is going to close up or down for the year it really does not matter. Trading is a lifelong occurrence and you keep score at the end when your done trading. Not by artificial time frames as a year , a month, a session, or some poker players keep track…by a hand:) Their emotions change hand by hand as if the daily ups and downs are at all relevant.
I am long a basket of stocks and plan on holding them until april again this year unless something changes in my thinking. My mean reversion and swing trades are down to about 4 and I will let those play out.
Have a safe New Years eve tonight. No need to overindulge and feel miserable the next day. Just enjoy the thought that your alive and healthy with friends and family around you. That is what is important!
For subscribers I will update with plays in sports as they develop throughout the day. And also updated stops or new trades will be sent out also.
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