Wednesday we went 1-1 for a push day. We won with Tampa Bay -159 8-5 and lost with Pitt +115 2-6. I was asked last night whether I have lost my mind betting on -159 favorites:) Well you do not have to worry about that as I lost my mind years ago!
However I am always open to betting favorites but since the public tends to be on favorites it means to me that for value the place to look is the dog. Last night however Tampa had less than 40% of the betting on them as a -159 Favorite. That alone won’t does it for me but when I handicap the game and it comes up Tampa with the public on the dog it’s an easy play for me.
Also, I think most have guessed it by now but I have a lot of handicapping techniques I use and some that are in the works. But no matter what I come up with it has to pass the real-time test for 2 years. At one year if it confirms the backtesting I will put the game out as a 1/2 unit plays. Then if it passes the 2nd year it then becomes a 1 unit play. That is basically how I split things up.
Its a bit more complicated than that but that gives you an overview.
So at times if there are not a lot of 1 unit plays for awhile it means that there are no techniques that have come up that have passed my 2 season real time test.
Tonight is an interesting night as the betting numbers except for San Diego is pretty much split evenly. San Diego only has 16% of the betting on them but there is nothing that I look at that points to San Diego having value on the game. So it’s not only % numbers. It’s a multitude of things that steers me to a game.
Also, you have the cubs tonight as a nice home favorite with only 35% of the betting on them. That for me is a red flag to stay away from the road favorite. But again nothing else points to the cubs.
We also have an NBA Game tonight:
Betting is 58% on Toronto with the line moving from -4 to -5. Models are neutral and variables slightly favor Toronto.
There is nothing here that I can see that provides many clues on the game and I am passing.
Good Luck Tonight
Rickj’s Handicapping Picks
The Markets are up this morning for a change. Not much news to speak of but it might have something to do with oil rebounding quite a bit this morning.
If you’re trying to make sense out of this market logically on a day to day basis you’re approaching it the wrong way unless your an expert trader that knows what variables to consider and interpret. You look at traders screens and their charts and you see a multitude of lines and sub-charts measuring all sorts of variables. After 10 min you get a severe headache trying to follow it all.
That’s why the newest approach is price action. And once you get the hang of price action you need maybe 1 or 2 indicators for confirmation. These indicators are not complex but very simple MACD or Stochastics will do fine. And then learn how to interpret price action alone from the charts. That is how you become a good trader.
But if you want to become a consistently profitable trader then you need to incorporate two things into your routine. #1 is the holy Grail and #2 is your trigger. Now if you saw this on the internet you would expect some sort of pop up to get your email address or your money. But that is not how I do business.
#1 is sentiment. Sentiment is king. This is the one thing you have to know inside and out. And you need to know at least 5 to 10 measurements of sentiment. Now in looking at sentiment you have to be a contrarian. The only way to consistently make money in the markets is as a contrarian. If you’re with the crowd you are bucking an enormous headwind. That’s why mean reversion tends to work very well. Although you need some filters to make variance tolerable. And then you combine #2 Divergence. This can take many different forms but it’s the other area you need to learn. Then you combine price action with sentiment and divergence and your ready to go.
But as you guess it’s not easy. But it will give you a headstart over the others that are randomly pushing buttons and losing their money.
I do not have time this morning to provide a list of sentiment indicators but will when I wake up again at 4. The last few days for some weird reason I have been getting up at 5:30 which cuts my morning work time by 60%:)
I am expecting a pretty good rally off these lows to flush out the new bears. When sentiment turns bullish again, hopefully to an extreme it will be time to jump ship and watch for awhile. I expect we are going to get a pretty good downswing once this last push higher is finished.
If you wish to follow my trades go to @rickjswings. It’s free for now and might be for quite awhile as I do not have enough time to devote to it with my sports handicapping in full swing.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks