One game tonight in the NBA:
Betting is 55 % on Cleveland with the line moving from -10.5 to -11 on the home favorite. Variables and models are neutral as is the public betting. This game is a coin flip all the way down the line to me. A clear cut pass!
8:15 A.M. Update
Monday we continued our streak in MLB with a 2 unit win on Oakland -119 as they won 3-1. Our setup in MLB on Tampa Bay +115 was also good winning 13-2. I did buy back 1/2 of the Oakland wager as the line moved to +131 on the dog which was greater then the -119 we layed by .12. That adds quite a bit to the play and does not come around that often. It takes a substantial move before I consider that. It has been the 2nd so far this season.
We have 2 carry overs from last night. A 1 unit play and a setup so far today. With everything starting later today you most likely will not hear from me until around 3 or 4 this afternoon.
Below is an email I received yesterday I would like to share:
“Hey Rick – nice day in the markets and yesterday with Sports. I’m in your town enjoying myself as always but I’m not familiar with Bet or Pass- can you explain? Also asked you earlier about whether there was suggested readings on your style of trading but never heard back Thanks,”
“The bet or pass is one of the many setups I am following real time with the idea that if they pass the real time testing next season they will become 1/2 unit plays. Then if the next season confirms they become full 1 unit plays. I do not bet them. I used to put quite a few more out but I found bettors seemed to get in trouble betting all of them so I just decided to monitor them myself. But this setup looked so good I decided to share it. But remember until it passes Real Time testing anything can happen. Backtesting alone is not enough to wager money on.
As far as my trading methods its a mix of mean reversion and break out trading. I throw in a day trade from time to time but my opinion is that the home computer with a cable or dsl network connection does not do it for quick scalping. You are up against lightning speed executions many of which are sophisticated bots with extremely deep pockets. Not a good environment to try to tackle scalping. However its fun so I dip in occasionally.
There are a number of books and sites that discuss the techniques I use. But I typically add my own parmeters in addition to the general ideas you find. Of the two mean reversion is my preference. Historically for me its been the most profitable.
When I find some time I will expound on both books, sites and in general my techniques.”
Let me add trading as in handicapping as a very expensive learning curve to it. Once you find techniques that have good chances of success then you have to figure out the psychologial restraints that as a member of the human race most humans have.
Finally we are now on a 5-0 run on our sports plays. 4-0 in MLB with a win in the NBA making it 5-0!
If you wish to join just hit the paypal button on the upper right. Or if you would like to get a quick view of what I do you can sign up for a 3 day free trial by following @rick_sports my private twitter feed for sports plays. Hope to see you joining our group.
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
So far my analysis for this week has started out well. Early liquidity and oversold is a great combination and it turned out well. We still have liquidity today going for the long side but it ends abruptly tomorrow. However after a trend day like yesterday you usually get a consolidation day or a pull back day. When I say typically it’s probably upwards of 80 – 90%. Two big trend days in a row are very rare. But they do happen so you cannot throw caution to the winds.
I traded yesterday as I said I would by taking Breakout trades and then exited them when I thought the risk-reward was gone. I am not sticking around with this market to the long side as I anticipate a drop midweek when liquidity dries up.
There are a few things that point to the upside however and that is sentiment. The sentiment is bearish and that is not the mood you expect to begin a bear market or even a significant drop. So as always conflicting signals of course. That’s one thing you can count on in trading. There will ALWAYS be conflicting signals.
This morning as I type this the markets are down almost .25%. This morning I anticipate some type of gap fill move which if I get the opportunity will try to scalp it. As far as short term swings it would have to be just perfect to take right now and if I do take one it most likely be shorts or perhaps options for medium-term swings. But medium-term swings are still a bit risky right now so you either take them or when you do now then stops need to be wide enough so wiggles do not get you out.
I will let you know when conditions are appropriate to get aggressive on medium-term swings. And we are not there yet.
Still have Feds talking most of the week although the market has pretty much quit listening at least regarding rate hikes. No one no believes for a second that there will be a rate hike before the elections. After all the fed regardless what you think is a political arm of the party in power. Not as much as other branches but it’s still there.
The bottom line is today will be a bit quieter today. Yesterday was hectic in the morning as I place 5 trades on in a short period of time and exited them all at about the same time later in the day. Today will be slow motion compared to that.
You can follow my trades for free by following my private twitter feed @rickjswings. It’s free for now and will most likely be for quite awhile.
Hope to see you. And if you’re in the private twitter feed your free to email with questions or comments.
Good Luck Today
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks