One game tonight in the NFL:
70% of the betting is on New Orleans with the line moving from -3 to -2.5. Variables strongly favor Detroit. Models favor detroit. With the line moving off of 3 however to 2.5 will take this game out of consideration. So I am passing on the game. Another way to look at it is that this might be another easy 70% cover:) We will see.
Before I get into how I did yesterday (a hint that things did not go so well!) let me give you a recap of the NFL games yesterday. There were 5 games where the betting was over 70% on the favorite with an additional 2 games in the over 60% category. The results were that it was 7-0 and every favorite not only covered but did it easily. My condolences to the books. The got massacred yesterday. And what makes it worse for them it had to happen on the week before Christmas. That money is spent. Good luck recovering it now from the Punters:)
How did I do? 0-3 on Plays. I missed most of the carnage in the NFL with only 1 play. I had Oakland +3.5. My other two plays were in the nba and nhl. Both lost. I did have 2 setups in the NHL and they lost also. When things start going down you know it. For instance in all 3 games in the NHL each one went into either OT or a shootout. And I ended up on the wrong side in each one.
It all started with Duke Under on Saturday losing by a half point in OT. How far this downdraft will go is anyones guess but its here and its something that one can never avoid if your betting day to day. Anyone can be a genius when they are winning but when your in a downswing that is where the test is. How you handle a downswing is what separates the professionals from the punters.
Professionals manage it..make sure they stick to their bet sizing and approach each day as a new one. Punters lose control, whine , tilt and what ever else you can imagine to make sure the downdraft is as painful and expensive as possible. Why you might ask….Because they are punters and have never got grips on the battle with human nature.
So there you have it. We are on a six unit down swing after a great November. If your betting 2% of your bankroll you have set aside for wagering on each play you have no concerns except what the plays are today. I have been doing this a long long time:) This really is hard to even call a downswing. When we get to 20 or even 30 units on the downside then you can proudly say you weathered a big downswing and kept your sanity and bankroll. That is the real test.
And if your still having trouble with comprehending this blip then think of the books yesterday. I cannot imagine what they lost. Also think of the punter that decided to become a bookmaker and started yesterday. Out of action in one day!
Ok…enough of the rambling. I will be posting plays 1 to 10 min before game times. I posted this early because their are early games today.
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The markets did not disappoint last week for excitement. Up 600 in three days and down 600 in two days! Volatility is insane right now and I do not expect it to get much better with all the triggers floating around that promotes fear.
Now friday was quadruple options expiration day which had an effect on the increased volitility but the drop was so severe and persistent that I think more is at play here. Of course it did not help when a fed governor came out and said it was likely that there would be 4 more rate hikes next year. Nice Christmas gift by the fed for all! I am getting tired talking about the fed and how wrong they are about these hikes. Let me just mention that the entire idea of transparency was to reduce the uncertainty and calm the markets. The way the fed is handling this now the exact opposite is happening. Someone adult needs to step in and stop these guys from thinking they are Rock Stars or even worse members of Congress!
Well the markets might be starting their Santa Rally today up almost 1 % 45 min before the open. Lets see if that can hold. Its a shortened week with a half day on Friday. And Volume will be light this week.
I am long a portfolio of stocks with several mean reversion and swing trades on right now. Surprisingly my trades have been holding up well in this carnage. Lets see if that can continue.
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