The Stock Market is set to open down this morning. Most everything in the red with TLT up slightly. This is a slightly negative premarket.
It looks to me like the trade uncertainty is front and center right now. So far there has been very little progress on trade, with the rhetoric heating up. Combine this with the schism between the U.S. and the E. U on Iran and you have friction between U.S. allies that you have not seen in the past.
I am not sure how this will end up, as I would have thought trade would have been resolved mostly by now. But for now, it looks like our trading partners are entrenched. So should be interesting to see how this develops.
Then we have the fed raised rates another .25% on Wedn.
In addition, the market is ripe for a pullback. QQQ and IWM have been hitting new highs daily.
With that backdrop, I expect a correction soon. But to me, it looks like a pullback to buy. This market seems to have a ways to go on the upside. The economic environment in the U.S. just keeps getting stronger.
The big caveat is the political dysfunction in the U.S. As a moderate, middle of the roader, Its rather concerning to see the polarization in U.S. politics.
It has become so bad the right and wrong is irrelevant. The sides have become pathological in their hate for each other. Issues do not matter. If one side is on an issue the other side is automatically condemning it.
Of course, the special counsel is helping to fuel this. Every time there are rumors that the special counsel is going to be fired you here that people are going to take to the streets if that happens. Of course, the people saying this will be nowhere near the streets. They will be safe at home with armed guards. It will be the gullible humans that are triggered by this that will risk harm to themselves.
The OIG report finally was released yesterday. If you read the 500+ pages and ignored the spin on the mainstream media, then you know it was very damning of the FBI, DOJ and the Obama administration is not only how they handled the Clinton investigation but also how they are handling the Trump investigation.
This, of course, is causing the Dems to entrench, ignoring what is really a concern for the entire country. As this time it was a Dem that politicized the FBI and DOJ but next time it could well be a Republican.
But in these times logic and reason are very difficult to find. I expect things will get worse before they get better.
If you’re looking for logic and reason, one needs only to listen to Johnathon Turley, Allan Dershowitz, and Glenn Greenwald. All three are lifelong Democrats. Of the three Greenwald is more on the liberal side but his integrity is intact.
If you’re looking for independents you can do no better than Cheryl Atkinson. She has won many prizes for her investigative journalism. Always a straight shooter.
If you would rather listen to people on the right then Tucker Carleson, Trish Reagan, and Maria Bartiromo are excellent. They are on Fox. They are not as one-sided as some of the other commentators on Fox.
I have said this before that unless you have some understanding at what is going on politically and geopolitically you will be at a disadvantage trading. In addition, you will miss out on some great trading opportunities.
For instance, if you can even get close to timing when this administration is going to work out a trade deal with any of its trading partners you will make a lot of money on the long side.
Good Luck Trading today
RickJ
RickJ’s Handicapping Picks
rickjshandicappingpicks.com/investing
Skype: riccja
