The Whipsaw continues in the Markets…Swing traders beware!!!!!

3:55 Update

One game tonight in the NBA:

San Ant

Okl City

Betting is 54 % on the road favorite with the line moving from -2.5 to -1. Models are neutral with variables ever so slightly favoring San Antonio. Public betting is about neutral and gives no clues. This game is pretty close to a toss up and I am passing on the game.

 

11:30 Update

A busy day on Wednesday with 3 one unit plays and 2 1/2 unit plays. We went 0-3 on our 1 unit plays losing with Oakland +174 3-13, Cinci +125 4-5, and Min +107 2-9. Our two 1/2 unit plays split winning with Hou +129 and losing with the Angels +126 2-5 . Finally, we had a 1/2 unit play on Toronto -4.5  in the NBA and won 99-91.

So our downswing continues in MLB from +7.5 units to now -6.02 units. a 13.5 unit swing is really nothing in baseball but I know it does not feel very good. The best thing to do during downswings is stick with the program, Stay disciplined and focused. If your thinking at all about increasing your bet size because it’s time for a turnaround then either send me an email so I can straighten you out or quit for awhile.  That is absolutely the worst thing you can do. Sticking with your bet sizing plan that you started with is the way to go. That really is the only control you have over your outcome. If you lose that you are done. Do not become one of the 95% that gets dusted because they lost all their disciple and blew off more than they should.

I know it can be tempting. But discipline is the positive EV way to go:)

And really I am here to help. I have counseled many during tough times. And it comes at no cost. It’s part of being a member of this group.

Everything is late today so you will hear from me later this afternoon.

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

 

After a plunge yesterday which was unexpected the markets are now gaping up about .50%. If you’re a swing trader you might want to step back for awhile to let things settle down. One rule I have found helpful in this environment for BreakOut traders is to close your position EOD if after the BO it moves back to or below your entry price.  So essentially you’re looking at follow through or OUT.

For mean reversion traders its a bit tougher. You can cut your position sizing  but there are no stops to consider. Myself I tighten the setups a bit and do not try to front run anything!  This is a very unforgiving market right now if you’re not disciplined.

I made a timely exit early yesterday from all my long positions and am now positioned short but just by a little bit. I am following my own advice:)

My opinion on the markets is we are pretty much in no mans land with a bearish bias. I had indicated yesterday that the quality of the rebound would tell the story and if that statement was true then we are heading down a bit more. But to confirm we need follow through or consolidation here . So the next few days will be telling.

I am going to still take swing trades but if no follow through I am OUT at end of day. No sense getting chopped up.

 

Good Luck Today

RickJ

RickJ’s Handicapping Picks

 

 

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